Thoughts in the early morning of October 21:

In the recent market, the performance of Bitcoin has been extremely strong. It was originally expected to have a callback structure, but it turned into a sideways shock after a shallow callback, and it has been unable to go down. In this case, shorts need to be extra cautious. The weekly line will close at 8 o'clock tomorrow morning, and the current weekly MACD is in a golden cross state above the 0 axis. If Bitcoin fails to have a strong decline in the next ten hours, then the weekly golden cross will be locked. At that time, the probability of Bitcoin breaking through 70,000 next week will increase significantly. Therefore, once the golden cross is locked, we should continue to be bullish, unless a new top pattern appears on the daily line.

At the 1-hour level, the trend is still unclear and can go up or down. If it continues to rise and break through 68650, it means that yesterday's 1-hour level callback ended in a shallow callback; if it continues to fall below 68000, it means that the 1-hour level decline continues to extend downward. It is not recommended to short here. If you really want to short, you can wait until the market continues to fall and weakens before participating. If the short-term trend is strong, you should temporarily avoid it. The current short-term support is around 68,000. Only if it falls below this position can it further look to 67,000 or lower.

Big Pie: Long around 67800-68000, up to 69300-69500

Big Pie: Short around 69200-69400, down to 67700-67900

Second Pie: Long around 2660-2680, up to 2750-2770

Second Pie: Short around 2740-2760, down to 2655-2675

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