Nowadays, everyone is either playing MemeCoin or on the way to play MemeCoin. MemeCoin is the hottest track at present. Yesterday (October 18), the 4th theme sharing session initiated by Mr. Heng in the group lasted for a full hour and a half, and many partners said that they had some new gains.
I saw that after the Hengbo Boss sharing session, a small group of "Hundred Times Plan" was opened, and many partners from the large group joined in the hope of learning and communicating. Hualihuawai plays more of a "bridge" role. For different goals, the speakers of the theme sharing sessions will independently initiate and establish small communication circles of the same frequency. We definitely have a free and open attitude towards this kind of thing.
People are changed by what they love, and no one is poor because of giving. If you want to go fast, walk alone. If you want to go far, walk with friends!
In short, things that are aimed at communication and learning, and can promote more mutual help and improvement among everyone are definitely much more reliable than simply hoping that someone can directly lead you to wealth.
We also mentioned in a previous article: If you are always looking for a circle where you hope to have a teacher to guide you and make you rich directly, and hope to find someone to directly guide you in buying and selling operations, then within our cognitive framework, people who have such ideas may be far from making real money in the long run.
Many times, the laziness of human nature often means thinking about getting something for nothing, but the logic of many things is not complicated. You just need to overcome fear of difficulty and laziness. It is impossible to achieve long-term investment success by asking others for a simple conclusion without spending any effort. If you don’t have the basic knowledge base, when you encounter market fluctuations, your brain will not have the determination to hold on. This is essentially the same as practicing basic skills, doing muscle training, etc. in boxing. Therefore, it is better to adjust your mentality, put down your posture and learn and experience it yourself, and have more exchanges of ideas with people of the same frequency. When you continue to gain new perspectives, many of the problems that were originally puzzling may be solved.
In yesterday’s article (October 18), we did some framework-based review of the DCA strategy, but I found that more people might still prefer to read articles on market forecasts, wealth code recommendations, etc., so the reading volume of articles on pure methodological topics is relatively low and the completion rate is also relatively poor.
However, this is not my main concern, because my current personal habits are actually relatively Buddhist. I usually don’t have any fixed plans for writing articles. Basically, I just write whatever I can think of.
Moreover, the focus of the content may be different in different periods. For example, during the bear market of 2022-2023, the articles published by Hualihuawai were mainly about project compilation and introduction. During that period, at least thousands of projects were shared (mentioned). Since this year (2024), Hualihuawai's articles have been more about the logic of thinking and the level of methodology. I rarely spend time paying attention to the development of any specific project.
But as a blogger, I sometimes write about hot topics that you might like to read. So in this issue, let's continue to talk about the market.
If we look at it purely structurally, BTC looks good right now. BTC has been consolidating in a key range for most of this year, and if nothing else happens in the next few weeks, we may see a significant new move.
Since March, BTC has been in a downward channel and has experienced multiple failed breakthroughs. After more than half a year, many people no longer seem to believe in the bull market. When most people are disappointed or desperate, the market is likely to reverse. Once BTC breaks out significantly, we believe that its scale may be much larger than many people expect.
At present, a large number of short positions have also accumulated around US$70,000. If this position range can be effectively broken through in the future, it may trigger a new round of FOMO sentiment.
In addition, some other factors that affect the overall trend of BTC (including macroeconomic and external factors) also need our continued attention, such as:
1. Global liquidity is increasing
The rise of the market often requires sufficient liquidity support. BTC is actually quite sensitive to this variable. At present, global liquidity is beginning to explode. With the implementation of monetary easing policies in major countries around the world, we expect that global liquidity will change more significantly by 2025. As shown in the figure below.
2. Bitcoin stock on exchanges hits record low
With institutional buying and whale accumulation, the current supply of Bitcoin on exchanges is at a historical low. As shown in the figure below. Once the market FOMO sentiment arrives, at some point in the future, severe supply tensions may once again prompt a rapid rise in Bitcoin prices.
3. The US presidential election next month
Although this year's US presidential election has been expected for a long time, the market may not have fully digested it. According to the latest data from the prediction website, Trump's chance of winning has risen back to 60%, as shown in the figure below.
Many analysts believe that if Trump wins, the crypto market may respond more positively because Trump may position the crypto market as one of the keys to US financial stability.
In addition, in previous articles of Hualihuawai, we also shared a more interesting historical data. Those who are interested can compare it again, as shown in the figure below.
4. BTC ETF continues to see capital inflow
As of yesterday (October 18), the ETF has recorded positive inflows for the sixth consecutive day, as shown in the figure below.
From a longer-term perspective, institutions will continue to buy BTC, and it is possible that the market value of Bitcoin will exceed that of gold. Of course, this ultimate goal will take time, and perhaps, 1 million Bitcoins in the future is not really an unattainable dream.
In short, if nothing unexpected happens, a new round of BTC rise may only be a matter of time. In the next few weeks to months, Bitcoin may usher in a new round of market conditions.
However, in order to avoid unnecessary trouble, I will not say anything final, you must not choose to go all in. At this stage, the market sentiment has returned to greed, and the open interest of Bitcoin futures has also reached a relatively new high. Greed + high leverage (which may even be accompanied by a chain reaction of lending and liquidation on the chain) means that there may be a greater volatility wash, and the market correction may happen at any time.
If you don't want to miss the next round of opportunities, the safest way is to operate in batches. If a relatively large callback does occur, you can operate more boldly. However, you must pay attention to your position management and target management (such as take profit/stop loss).
This is the end of our sharing of this issue. For more articles, please visit the homepage of Hualihuawai. The above content is only a personal point of view and analysis, which is only used for learning records and communication, and does not constitute any investment advice.
