📝 Arthur Hayes discusses how geopolitical events and money supply affect Bitcoin volatility and value in his article “Persistent Weak Layer”.

Here are Arthur Hayes’ main points:

- He draws parallels between instability in the Middle East and a “weak layer” that could cause a crisis in global markets if the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates;

- An escalation of the conflict could damage oil infrastructure and raise energy prices, which in turn would increase the value of BTC as a “digital energy store”;

- Hayes believes that the growth of the money supply in the world helps support cryptocurrencies, believing that BTC will continue to grow in the long term, despite a possible decrease in hashrate due to the shutdown of Iranian miners;

- He advises careful asset allocation, avoiding large investments in volatile instruments and considering investing in US government bonds;

– The main risk for the markets is inflation caused by the issuance of dollars to finance US military operations and support for Israel, which could contribute to further growth of BTC;

– If the situation worsens, Hayes plans to reduce investments in memecoins and increase positions in more stable cryptocurrencies, emphasizing the importance of a rational approach to investments, rather than being guided by ethical or political considerations, since wars can lead to repression and loss of assets.

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