After the A-share market's overall correction after the National Day holiday, the focus has recently been on the Ministry of Finance's press conference last Saturday. We interpret this based on some data and market conditions.
First, we quote the survey report of Huatai Fixed Income on October 12:
Most people believe that the lowest point of the Shanghai Composite Index within three months is between 3100 and 3300, and the highest point is between 3200 and 3600.
The number of people who are bullish and volatile is evenly divided, and most people agree that the press conference is in line with expectations.
After the A-share market opened on October 14, the market situation clearly matched the questionnaire results.
Why is it going this way?
The market was brewing after the National Day holiday, and on October 8, it formed a short-term top of 3674 with high trading volume, and a large number of locked-in orders gathered above. This is regarded as a stage high point.
Moody's Analytics economist Lin Shishun noted that the government is "still working out the details of fiscal stimulus measures" and investors may take a step back until the direction of fiscal support is confirmed.
This round of press conferences provided some data, but lacked the support of key figures and did not meet the standard of "exceeding expectations". The capital market tends to be prudent and will be cautious once there is uncertainty.
Looking ahead to the next node: the NPC Standing Committee meeting from mid-October to the end of the month, and the results of the US election on November 5.
🔍 Temporary view: If there is no sudden positive news, the Shanghai Composite Index will be mainly volatile and profits should be taken while they are good.
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