Galaxy predicts 74% Bitcoin price increase first year after ETF launch
Spot Bitcoin ETF estimated one-year inflows by month and Bitcoin price impact. Source: Galaxy Digital Research
Yu used Bitcoin price data from Sept. 30, but a 74.1% increase in Bitcoin’s current price would see it hit $59,200.
Markus Thielen, head of research at digital asset financial services firm Matrixport reached a similar figure in an Oct. 19 post, estimating Bitcoin could rise to between $42,000 and $56,000 if BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF application is approved.
Yu predicts the U.S. Bitcoin ETFs’ addressable market size to reach $26.5 trillion in the second year after launch and $39.6 trillion after the third year
Yu acknowledged a delay or denial of spot Bitcoin ETFs would impact its price prediction.
However, he said the estimates were still conservative and didn’t factor in “second-order effects” from a spot Bitcoin ETF approval.
“In the near-term, we expect other global/international markets to follow the U.S. in approving + offering similar Bitcoin ETF offerings to a wider population of investors,” Yu wrote.
He added “2024 could be a big year for Bitcoin” citing ETF inflows, the April 2024 Bitcoin halving and “the possibility that rates have peaked or will peak in the near term.”
