10.14 Monday morning express:

Stock market: Last Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed up collectively. The Dow Jones Index closed up 0.96% at 42,863.86 points, the S&P 500 closed up 0.60% at 5,815.03 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index closed up 0.32% at 18,342.94 points. The three major A-share indices fluctuated and weakened. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 2.55% at 3,217.74 points, the Shenzhen Component Index closed down 3.94% at 10,058.73 points, and the ChiNext Index closed down 5.06% at 2,100.87 points.

According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed cutting 25 basis points by November is 95.6%, and the probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged is 4.4%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by December is 15.4%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 84.1%, the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut is 0%; the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point rate cut is 0%.

Middle East situation: Israel has narrowed the scope of its strike targets against Iran, and military and energy infrastructure may become targets, and it may act at any time. US officials said that the United States intends to deploy the "THAAD" anti-missile system in Israel and the US military will be responsible for operation. Israeli tanks forcibly broke into the UNIFIL camp. The Israeli Prime Minister urged the UN Secretary-General to withdraw the UNIFIL from the war zone in southern Lebanon. The UN force reported that the fifth peacekeeper was injured in the Israeli attack on Lebanon.

The annual rate of the US PPI in September was 1.8%, higher than the market expectation of 1.6%, and the previous value was revised up from 1.7% to 1.9%.

Fed Logan: Recent inflation data is "very welcome".

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