Continuing from last time, I said that Big A is not good at expectation management. Is it because they don’t know how to do it? I think not. It’s because of the different cultural attributes. They haven’t found a way to suit this culture yet.

At present, the motivation and determination to improve the confidence of the A-share market are definitely there, but the effect is short-lived. What is the reason? I think it is still a credibility issue. No one trusts it. When I say everyone, I don’t mean retail investors. Retail investors are always trusted because they have no opinions and are more obedient. When I say everyone doesn’t trust it, I mean that the shareholders of those companies don’t trust it. They are all cashing out. The cashing out of one shareholder requires tens of thousands of retail investors to undertake it. If thousands of shareholders cash out, the situation will be very tangled.

What caused shareholders to lose trust and confidence? This goes back to a few years ago. I told my friends that the expectation of the free market was gone. The landmark event was the one-size-fits-all approach to education and training. An A4 paper wiped out an entire industry, and giants such as New Oriental switched to other industries. The impact of this event was huge. It was not a three-year plan or something like that to allow you to exit gradually, but a sudden attack without warning or expectation. This lack of expectation gave those CEOs the message of insecurity, which led to a crisis of trust. The entire entrepreneurial and investment market also took a sharp turn for the worse from this time. CEOs found that it was safest and most reliable to keep their money in the bank.

You are encouraging mass entrepreneurship and innovation now, but you can't be sure when the honeymoon period is over, you will start slaughtering pigs again. This cycle happened from 2013 to 2018, and I have also suffered a great loss. When they are on honeymoon, they are called Little Sweetie, and when the honeymoon is over, they are called Mrs. Niu.

Unlike the United States, when to hold meetings to discuss issues and what data to release are all expected. For example, I knew last year that the Fed would cut interest rates this year, but I was not sure whether it would be in July, September or November. But it would not be too sudden. For example, I now know that the US election will be on November 5, and whether or not the interest rate will be cut again and by how much basis points will be announced on November 7. These are all expected.

There is a classic saying in Tiandao: Based on our cultural attributes, if you want to make money from investment, you must start early and withdraw before the government starts to make a move. This is very difficult. But if you have a pass and know when to make a move, then it is another matter. All industries here are based on human relationships, and logical analysis accounts for half and half. This is also a cultural attribute.

On the contrary, in the cryptocurrency world, although you may not necessarily make money, at least it is fair. Even if you lose money, you will be convinced.

Always keep smiling because you are spending money to lose.