The September PPI data of the United States will be released again at 8:30 tonight.
The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) is an important economic indicator that measures the price changes of goods and services in the domestic production process of the United States. The following are some recent situations and related interpretations of the U.S. PPI:
- Data for August 2024:
- Year-on-year data: The year-on-year increase in PPI in August was 1.7%, a significant drop from the previous value of 2.2%. This means that compared with the same period last year, the increase in producer prices has decreased, but there is still a certain degree of price increase.
- Month-on-month data: PPI in August rose by 0.2% month-on-month. Among them, the core PPI (excluding items with large price fluctuations such as food and energy) rose by 2.4% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. The previous value was revised from 0% to -0.2%. This shows that after removing volatile factors, the core prices at the producer level in the United States have also risen to a certain extent, but the month-on-month growth rate is relatively mild.
- Market expectations for September 2024 data:
- PPI annual rate: The market expects the PPI annual rate to drop by 0.1 percentage points to 1.6% in September. If the data drops again, it will confirm that it has entered a downward channel. Historical data show that there is a strong correlation between the PPI annual rate and the consumer price index (CPI) annual rate, and the change in the PPI annual rate has a certain forward-looking guidance effect on the CPI.
- PPI monthly rate: The previous value of the PPI monthly rate in September was 0.2%, and the market expected a drop of 0.1 percentage points to 0.1%. In the past year, the monthly PPI data in the United States has been unstable, with a maximum of 0.6% and a minimum of -0.3%, and the long-term performance is volatile.
Changes in the US PPI have many impacts on the economy:
- Impact on monetary policy: A rise in PPI may indicate a rise in the consumer price index (CPI) in the future, and the Federal Reserve may adopt a tight monetary policy, such as raising interest rates; conversely, a decline in PPI may mean a slowdown in economic activity, and the Federal Reserve may consider easing monetary policy.
