BTC Falls Below $61,000, Here’s the Next Target
Last Updated Oct 10, 2024 @ 13:38
Bitcoin’s $BTC rejection at $66K and the break below the 200-day moving average suggest that bearish sentiment is gaining strength.
If the price fails to hold the $60K support, the likelihood of a mid-term decline toward the $52K-$55K zone increases.
Technical Analysis
The Daily Chart
On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s surge above both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages briefly revived bullish sentiment.
However, upon reaching the $66K resistance zone, substantial selling pressure emerged, halting the uptrend. This area has historically served as a robust multi-month resistance, and Bitcoin’s failure to surpass it resulted in a significant rejection.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading below the 200-day moving average of $63.4K and resting on the 100-day moving average of around $61K. This zone is critical, as the $60K support region is both psychological and substantial.
If Bitcoin breaks below this barrier, a mid-term decline toward the $52K-$55K range becomes likely. This area represents the next major support level and could be the target if bearish momentum continues.
The 4-Hour Chart
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin’s surge was met with heavy resistance in the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci OTE retracement zone, which corresponds to the $66K price level.
This selling pressure led to a sharp rejection, resulting in a 10% decline. The presence of sellers near the $66K level indicates that it remains a formidable barrier, acting as a key resistance level in the broader market outlook.
As a result, Bitcoin is expected to enter a short-term consolidation phase, with the $60K psychological support being the next crucial level to watch. If Bitcoin ($BTC holds above this support, it may consolidate before attempting another upward move. However, if the $60K support is breached, a deeper retracement toward the $55K level becomes highly probable, marking a potential shift to a sustained bearish trend.
On-chain Analysis
The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index is a key indicator that helps assess whether U.S. institutional investors or large traders are actively buying or selling $BTC on Coinbase compared to other exchanges. Currently, the index shows negative values, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market, with either significant selling pressure or a pause in accumulation by large investors.
In the short term, this negative premium reflects a lack of demand from U.S.-based institutional investors, contributing to bearish market sentiment. However, this period of low sentiment for long-term holders can often present attractive buying opportunities. From a broader perspective, while the market is still moving within a descending trend channel, both accumulation and selling pressure seem to be tapering off.
This suggests a period of market indecision where neither bulls nor bears have a firm grip on the direction of price action. As a result, this is not an ideal time for short-term trading, as the lack of a clear trend introduces increased risk.
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