I didn’t want to post this, I was too lazy to type so many words.
But I have to fight back after being reported. Let me sort out the logic of opening orders in the past few days.
10.6
At first, I thought it was the high point of 2440, because it happened to hit the Fibonacci 0.382 position of the previous decline, and it was also the middle track of the Bollinger Band. At that time, I believed that there was another downward structure, that is, the fifth wave in the B wave. In the end, it was likely to go back below 2400. Then I was trapped. This was a mistake.
10.7
Re-analyzing the market, the B-2 wave retraces the B-1 wave by 0.5-0.618. Generally speaking, the B-4 wave should retrace to 0.382. Yes, this is usually, but not absolutely. For example, the previous four waves did not retrace to 0.382. And according to the rules, after the B-2 wave is identified as a straight line, the B-4 wave should be horizontal. The abc wave is more in line with the conditions for the formation of the B-4 wave at that time.
So this is calculable.
a:2440-2308=132.b:2440-2389=51 (this is actually useless).
The end point of b is 2389, so 2389+132=2521. So what is the probability of 2521?
1. It is a resistance level. 2. From the indicator point of view, the four-hour level has been in the overbought area, forming a double top dead cross, and the prices of 2440 and 2457 have been hitting new highs. A typical top divergence phenomenon. 3. Theoretically calculate the final height of the three waves abc. 4. It has been in the 4th wave and has not entered the 5th wave.
To sum up, the profit of opening a short position at 2521 is huge, and the winning rate is about 80%.
Then the first point reached was 2512.5. I personally accept the error of ±10, so I thought it should have reached it. I added a short order near 2510. But I didn’t expect that it would rebound to 2520.25 after 2436. This is amazing. However, the final target of the short order remains unchanged, still below 2400.
The profit target can also be calculated theoretically.
2727-2572=152, here is a B-1 wave. Generally speaking, the amplitude of B-5 is proportional to the B-1 wave: 1 or 0.618.
2520-152=2368，
2520-152×0.618=2426，
2520-152/0.618=2274.
Basically, we can rule out 2274 first, which is too low. Although it seems that B-5 is lower than B-3 (2308), this point is closer to the previous 2275, which is unreasonable. Moreover, the daily line actually had a bullish trend at that time, so it should not have fallen so much.
From experience, the 1:1 relationship is more common. So the short position can be seen at 2368 (2368±10), and then the reverse position can be opened near this point.
The market has been fluctuating for the past two days, and the K-line is very chaotic. I dare say that not many people could see 2360 at that time. Just like before, shorting at 2500, shorting at 2600, and then seeing that it couldn't fall further at 2700, they started to call for buying at a low point and looking at 2800. It's so funny. At 2600, I dared to buy at 2700, and at 2700, I dared to buy at 2500. Not many people saw it this way.
Isn't it that a slight rise is called a bull market and a slight fall is called a bear market? A fall in a bull market is called a correction, and a fall in a bear market is called a rebound. The same point has been moved twice, are the properties really the same? Orders should be made logically, not based on feelings. Also, looking at this news and that news, is it possible that the news is leaked to institutions in advance?
