At the end of September, Bitcoin fell from about $66,000 to a low of $60,000 on October 3, and then stabilized in a narrow range between $62,000 and $63,000. Surprisingly, the crypto market continued to fall as U.S. stocks continued to rise. With the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting in the early morning, Bitcoin finally failed to hold up and directly fell below the key support level in the early morning of today, retreating from the 30-day line of 62k to the 60,000-dollar line. So far, the market has warmed up.
Although Bitcoin continues to fluctuate downward, the retracement in this bull market is still relatively small and continues the pattern of previous bull markets, reflecting a certain degree of market resilience. Investor behavior remains strong, and huge demand has mitigated the impact of market pullbacks.
New opportunities are brewing in the crypto market: suspense and opportunities coexist
While the A-share market is hot, the crypto market seems a bit sluggish. After climbing to a two-month high of $66,500 on September 27, Bitcoin fluctuated downward and fell to around $60,000 in early October.
As mentioned before, October is usually a key month and a key turning point in the cryptocurrency market. The market began to pick up in October last year. It is amazing that in October, market sentiment fluctuated between optimism and pessimism, but most of the time, the market seemed to always find reasons to rise. Now it is clear that market sentiment has begun to fluctuate between optimism and pessimism again.
Despite this, I am still bullish on the market!
Macroeconomic and policy changes:
The influx of incremental funds caused by the U.S. interest rate cuts will drive the overall rise of the crypto market. At the same time, loose monetary policies are generally considered to be beneficial to speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies, so the market is optimistic about the future market.
In addition, as the US employment data picks up, the market generally expects that it will further stimulate the rise in Bitcoin prices. If the inflation data is lower than expected, it may trigger expectations of interest rate cuts, which will benefit risky assets, including Bitcoin.
ETF and Institutional Investor Dynamics:
Net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs have a significant impact on price. Sustained net inflows indicate increasing demand for Bitcoin, and this positive sentiment tends to be reflected in the price, causing it to remain stable or rise. In the past month, the Bitcoin spot ETF had only 6 days of net outflows, and the magnitude was smaller than before. At present, after a period of price shock and decline, OTC financial confidence is gradually recovering.
It is worth mentioning that the trading volume of Bitcoin “whales” has also increased significantly recently, which historically is often a precursor to price increases. Whales are investors who hold large amounts of assets and can significantly influence market prices.
More and more long-dormant whales on the Bitcoin network are waking up, with on-chain transaction volume reaching $37.4 billion on Tuesday, the highest in nearly seven months. Historically, the return of long-idle Bitcoin to market circulation is beneficial to price trends.
Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis:
From a technical perspective, after experiencing wide fluctuations for half a year, the current price of Bitcoin is at the support level of $60,500. This level may become the focus of contention between bulls and bears.
In general, although the crypto market faces short-term fluctuations, the overall outlook for the market remains optimistic in the medium and long term. I think the current adjustment is more of a market clean-up, with the goal of clearing short-term speculative funds and accumulating strength for the next round of increases.
The current market adjustment does not mean a change in the long-term trend, and investors do not need to be too pessimistic. On the contrary, this may be a new opportunity to prepare for future gains. I believe that after the storm, the crypto market will eventually usher in a new bull market.
With storms coming, can CPI lead to a change in the market?
At 8:30 tonight, the US September unadjusted CPI annual rate will be released, which I think is a potential turning point in the short term. Previous value: 2.50% Expected: 2.3% Lower than expected is positive, higher than expected is negative.
BTC started to deviate from the US stock market a few days ago this week. The market lost an important "anchor" and the situation is quite tricky. There seems to be no quick solution at present, and waiting is the wisest choice. The next two opportunities are that either there is a technical breakthrough or a breakout today, or tonight's CPI data can stimulate the market and promote a short-term small trend!
To be honest, in the long run, I feel that CPI is not very important, because interest rate cuts are already on the way. The positive and negative factors only affect the speed of the rate cut. In the long run, it is definitely bullish. In the short term, it may be affected by panic. Even if it falls, it will not fall much. At most, it will be a pin. Short-term investors should guard against callbacks, and those who enter at high positions should set stop losses. Don't chase high too aggressively, but don't get off the car easily if you enter at low positions.
At the end of September, Bitcoin fell from about $66,000 to a low of $60,000 on October 3, and then stabilized in a narrow range between $62,000 and $63,000. Surprisingly, the crypto market continued to fall as U.S. stocks continued to rise. With the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting in the early morning, Bitcoin finally failed to hold up and directly fell below the key support level in the early morning of today, retreating from the 30-day line of 62k to the 60,000-dollar line. So far, the market has warmed up.
Although Bitcoin continues to fluctuate downward, the retracement in this bull market is still relatively small and continues the pattern of previous bull markets, reflecting a certain degree of market resilience. Investor behavior remains strong, and huge demand has mitigated the impact of market pullbacks.
New opportunities are brewing in the crypto market: suspense and opportunities coexist
While the A-share market is hot, the crypto market seems a bit sluggish. After climbing to a two-month high of $66,500 on September 27, Bitcoin fluctuated downward and fell to around $60,000 in early October.
As mentioned before, October is usually a key month and a key turning point in the cryptocurrency market. The market began to pick up in October last year. It is amazing that in October, market sentiment fluctuated between optimism and pessimism, but most of the time, the market seemed to always find reasons to rise. Now it is clear that market sentiment has begun to fluctuate between optimism and pessimism again.
Despite this, I am still bullish on the market!
Macroeconomic and policy changes:
The influx of incremental funds caused by the U.S. interest rate cuts will drive the overall rise of the crypto market. At the same time, loose monetary policies are generally considered to be beneficial to speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies, so the market is optimistic about the future market.
In addition, as the US employment data picks up, the market generally expects that it will further stimulate the rise in Bitcoin prices. If the inflation data is lower than expected, it may trigger expectations of interest rate cuts, which will benefit risky assets, including Bitcoin.
ETF and Institutional Investor Dynamics:
Net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs have a significant impact on price. Sustained net inflows indicate increasing demand for Bitcoin, and this positive sentiment tends to be reflected in the price, causing it to remain stable or rise. In the past month, the Bitcoin spot ETF had only 6 days of net outflows, and the magnitude was smaller than before. At present, after a period of price shock and decline, OTC financial confidence is gradually recovering.
It is worth mentioning that the trading volume of Bitcoin “whales” has also increased significantly recently, which historically is often a precursor to price increases. Whales are investors who hold large amounts of assets and can significantly influence market prices.
More and more long-dormant whales on the Bitcoin network are waking up, with on-chain transaction volume reaching $37.4 billion on Tuesday, the highest in nearly seven months. Historically, the return of long-idle Bitcoin to market circulation is beneficial to price trends.
Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis:
From a technical perspective, after experiencing wide fluctuations for half a year, the current price of Bitcoin is at the support level of $60,500. This level may become the focus of contention between bulls and bears.
In general, although the crypto market faces short-term fluctuations, the overall outlook for the market remains optimistic in the medium and long term. I think the current adjustment is more of a market clean-up, with the goal of clearing short-term speculative funds and accumulating strength for the next round of increases.
The current market adjustment does not mean a change in the long-term trend, and investors do not need to be too pessimistic. On the contrary, this may be a new opportunity to prepare for future gains. I believe that after the storm, the crypto market will eventually usher in a new bull market.
With storms coming, can CPI lead to a change in the market?
At 8:30 tonight, the US September unadjusted CPI annual rate will be released, which I think is a potential turning point in the short term. Previous value: 2.50% Expected: 2.3% Lower than expected is positive, higher than expected is negative.
BTC started to deviate from the US stock market a few days ago this week. The market lost an important "anchor" and the situation is quite tricky. There seems to be no quick solution at present, and waiting is the wisest choice. The next two opportunities are that either there is a technical breakthrough or a breakout today, or tonight's CPI data can stimulate the market and promote a short-term small trend!
To be honest, in the long run, I feel that CPI is not very important, because interest rate cuts are already on the way. The positive and negative factors only affect the speed of the rate cut. In the long run, it is definitely bullish. In the short term, it may be affected by panic. Even if it falls, it will not fall much. At most, it will be a pin. Short-term investors should guard against callbacks, and those who enter at high positions should set stop losses. Don't chase high too aggressively, but don't get off the car easily if you enter at low positions.
