Currently, there are two logics for speculating on altcoins:
1. Fulfillment of current business growth expectations:
For example, the older generation of DeFi projects fits this logic exactly. In the last bull market, these projects began to realize their business growth value expectations after going through the post-launch washout phase, and almost completed their development missions. However, as the market becomes more homogeneous, the value of these projects will eventually be diluted.
2. Realization of future potential market value expectations:
This logic applies to public chain projects. Normally, after these public chains enter the secondary market and experience a washout and sideways phase, there will be a significant price increase, but this performance is often difficult to sustain.
For example, the historical performance of projects such as AVAX, NEAR, FTM and MINA confirms this. The probability of sustainable development of projects, such as SOL, is indeed low. Most of them only realize their potential value expectations after a round of price increases. Sustainable value growth relies on the development of its ecosystem and business data.
