The price keeps falling, testing 60,000 US dollars again!

Under the backdrop of the Nasdaq index of U.S. stocks closing higher for two consecutive days recently, Bitcoin has shown a continuous downward trend. After trading sideways at 62,000 for a few days, it finally failed to hold and directly fell below the key support level early this morning, going all the way down to a low of $60,251. So far, the market has warmed up slightly.

Let’s be frank, it fell to 60,500 today and I bought some more!

October has always been a critical month and turning point for Bitcoin prices.

The market started to pick up in October last year. October was magical, with market sentiment swinging between optimism and pessimism, but most of the time, the market always seemed to find reasons to rise.

It is clear that market sentiment is now beginning to swing between optimism and pessimism.

My choice is to keep buying:

Macroeconomic factors:

The Fed’s meeting minutes and inflation data will have a significant impact on the market. If the inflation data is lower than expected, it may trigger expectations of rate cuts, which will be good for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

ETF and Institutional Investor Dynamics:

Although the approval of Bitcoin ETFs has brought a lot of funds, recent data shows that the inflow of funds into ETFs has been intermittent, and there has even been a net outflow. This may reflect the current shift in market sentiment, and investors seem to be waiting for clearer signals or more favorable entry points.

Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis:

From a technical perspective, after experiencing wide fluctuations for half a year, the current price of Bitcoin is at the support level of $60,500. This level may become the focus of contention between bulls and bears.

Political and social factors:

Although not mentioned directly, Elon Musk’s post shows concerns about the current political environment, which may affect investors’ risk appetite and indirectly affect the price of Bitcoin.

CPI is coming, the decisive battle begins

The United States will release CPI data at 8:30 tonight, which I think is a potential turning point. The trend in the past few days is also in line with my expectations.

Since August, there has been a very obvious pattern in the market trend, that is, the market's lowest point is around the 8th of each month. This time point is often accompanied by the release of important economic data, and then the market starts to move up. The last few days of the month are the high point of the stage market, and then it goes down all the way. You can verify this with the K-line chart.

The current trend is still in line with this rhythm. It depends on whether there will be another wave of rising prices. The prices of various currencies have also come near the previous key support levels. Whether they can withstand the test of the third decline, if successful, can be regarded as repeated bottoming out.

I have another guess. This time the main force will not take the lead in pulling up Bitcoin, where long positions are concentrated. Instead, it will use Ethereum, which has been unpopular in the long term, as a breakthrough point for the market, leading a group of copycats to rush upward, create a money-making effect, and attract liquidity. Coupled with the Ethereum upgrade narrative at the end of the year, the actual market also gives me the feeling that Ethereum is stronger. This is the script in my mind, and everyone can just laugh it off.

Although the market is bad, I am still optimistic about the future!

In general, although the crypto market faces short-term fluctuations, the overall outlook for the market remains optimistic in the medium and long term. We can expect that the current adjustment is more of a market clean-up, with the goal of clearing short-term speculative funds and accumulating strength for the next round of increases.

The capital market is essentially a battlefield for the game of human nature, and the crypto market is the ultimate manifestation of this game. With the gradual recovery of the global economy and the further easing of monetary policy, there is still huge room for the incremental funds in the crypto market to develop. For those investors who can hold on patiently, the arrival of the future bull market is worth looking forward to.

Therefore, the current market adjustment does not mean a change in the long-term trend, and investors do not need to be too pessimistic. On the contrary, this may be a new layout opportunity to prepare for future increases. I believe that after the storm, the crypto market will eventually usher in a new bull market.