TVL 迎来飙升，但1亿美元代币临近解锁下，APT 即将暴跌？

大橘财经 · 2024-10-10T01:34:16.000Z

Aptos [APT]自 2022 年 10 月推出以来持续获得发展势头，将自己定位为领先的第 1 层区块链。随着Aptos成立两周年的临近，它正在吸引越来越多交易者和投资者的关注。区块链的成功很大程度上归功于其对 Move 技术的独特使用，这使其有别于其他网络。目前Aptos 的交易价格约为 8.5 美元，受近期链上增长的推动，Aptos 价格可能达到 20 美元。这一增长的一个重要指标是总锁定价值 (TVL)，9 月份达到了 3 亿美元。仅在十月的第一周，价格就已经达到了这一水平，预示着今年最后一个季度价格还有很大的上涨潜力。 Amnis Finance 和 TruStake 等流动性质押项目推动了这一增长，9 月份流动性质押 TVL 增长了 28%。来自 CEX 和质押的 APT 流深入研究 Aptos 来自中心化交易所 (CEX) 的流量就会发现，尽管流出量激增，但净流量（即流出量减去流入量）在最大的 CEX 币安上仍为 -153 万 APT。这表明越来越多的交易者开始持有代币，表明市场情绪看涨。通过减少 APT 向交易所的流动，交易者表示不愿出售，预计价格会上涨。每周质押数据也显示出对 Aptos 的强大支持。聪明的交易者一直在质押 APT，自今年年初以来，质押总价值平均超过 8 亿美元。虽然本周 APT 质押占比略有下降，但 9 月份日均交易量依然稳健，为 150 万笔。每日交易次数最高记录达到 270 万笔，反映出 Aptos 的活跃度不断增长且具有进一步增长的潜力。活跃用户数量在用户采用方面，Aptos 的活跃用户数量持续上升。目前，该网络拥有超过 200 万活跃用户，比年初增长了 33%。自1月份以来，新用户增长了101％，仅今年一年就有129.9万新用户加入Aptos生态系统。所有指标都表明 Aptos 有望实现显着增长，以强劲的表现结束今年，随着越来越多的交易者和投资者注意到其强劲表现，Aptos 的价格有可能达到更高的水平。投资者对波动并不担心根据 Token Unlocks 的数据，Aptos 将于 10 月 11 日发行1131 万枚代币，占其最大供应量的 2.25%。按照山寨币的当前价格，这些代币价值近 1 亿美元。代币解锁是项目归属计划的一个重要方面。当先前锁定的代币被释放到流通中时，就会发生这种情况。此过程旨在管理代币的分配并减轻其对价格的潜在影响。然而，在解锁的代币数量较高的情况下，加密货币价格可能会出现大幅波动，有时甚至会出现明显下跌。根据日线图的信号，Aptos 的情况可能会有所不同。支持这一预测的指标之一是牛熊力量 (BBP)。 BBP 衡量市场中买方（多头）抬高价格的能力与卖方（空头）将价格拉低至某一水平以下的能力。当 BBP 上涨时，意味着多头占上风，价格可能上涨。另一方面，指标下跌表明空头占上风。如日线图所示，BBP 一直在上涨，表明 Aptos的价格可能上涨至 9.10 美元以上。 APT 目标价可能为 12 美元日线图评估显示，APT 在 9.40 美元处面临阻力，无法达到 10 美元的里程碑。不过，凭借 8.53 美元的支撑位和强劲的购买力，该山寨币仍有可能突破 10 美元。如果多头保持控制，APT 的价格可能会上涨 35%，可能达到 12.70 美元。在极端看涨的情况下，该代币甚至可能升至 16.53 美元，尽管在周五解锁事件之前这似乎不太可能。另一方面，如果持有者开始大笔获利，Aptos 的价格可能会下跌。由此产生的供应冲击可能会进一步增加下行压力，将价格推低至 7.58 美元。

Aptos [APT] continues to gain momentum since its launch in October 2022, positioning itself as a leading layer 1 blockchain.
As Aptos approaches its second anniversary, it is attracting more and more attention from traders and investors. The blockchain’s success is largely due to its unique use of Move technology, which sets it apart from other networks.
Currently trading at around $8.50, Aptos could reach $20, driven by recent on-chain growth. An important indicator of this growth is the total value locked (TVL), which reached $300 million in September. The price has already reached this level in the first week of October alone, suggesting a lot of upside potential in the last quarter of the year.
Liquidity staking projects such as Amnis Finance and TruStake drove this growth, with liquidity staking TVL increasing by 28% in September.
APT flows from CEX and stakingA deeper look at Aptos flows from centralized exchanges (CEXs) shows that despite the surge in outflows, net flows (i.e. outflows minus inflows) were still -1.53 ​​million APT on the largest CEX, Binance.
This indicates that more traders are starting to hold tokens, indicating bullish market sentiment. By reducing the flow of APT to exchanges, traders are showing their reluctance to sell, expecting prices to rise.
Weekly staking data also shows strong support for Aptos. Smart traders have been staking APT, with the total staked value averaging over $800 million since the beginning of the year.
Although the APT staking ratio has slightly decreased this week, the average daily transaction volume in September is still healthy at 1.5 million.
The highest number of transactions per day was recorded at 2.7 million, reflecting the growing activity of Aptos and the potential for further growth.
Number of active usersIn terms of user adoption, Aptos continues to see an uptick in active users. Currently, the network has over 2 million active users, a 33% increase from the beginning of the year.
New users have grown 101% since January, with 1.299 million new users joining the Aptos ecosystem this year alone.
All indicators suggest that Aptos is on track to achieve significant growth and end the year on a strong note, and as more traders and investors take notice of its strong performance, the price of Aptos has the potential to reach higher levels.
Investors unfazed by volatilityAccording to Token Unlocks, Aptos will issue 11.31 million tokens, or 2.25% of its maximum supply, on October 11. At the altcoin’s current price, these tokens are worth nearly $100 million.
Token unlocking is an important aspect of a project's vesting schedule. This occurs when previously locked tokens are released into circulation. This process is designed to manage the distribution of tokens and mitigate their potential impact on price.
However, in cases where the number of unlocked tokens is high, cryptocurrency prices can experience large fluctuations, sometimes even significant declines.
The situation for Aptos may be different depending on the signals from the daily chart. One of the indicators that supports this prediction is the Bull-Bear Power (BBP).
BBP measures the ability of buyers (longs) in the market to push prices up and sellers (shorts) to push prices down below a certain level.
When BBP is rising, it means that bulls have the upper hand and the price may rise. On the other hand, a falling indicator shows that bears have the upper hand. As shown in the daily chart, BBP has been rising, indicating that the price of Aptos may rise above $9.10.
APT price target could be $12
An evaluation of the daily chart shows that APT is facing resistance at $9.40 and is unable to reach the milestone of $10. However, with the support at $8.53 and strong buying power, the altcoin still has the potential to break through $10.
If the bulls remain in control, the price of APT could surge by 35%, potentially reaching $12.70. In an extremely bullish scenario, the token could even rise to $16.53, although this seems unlikely before Friday’s unlock event.
On the other hand, if holders start to take profits in large amounts, the price of Aptos could fall. The resulting supply shock could further increase downward pressure, pushing the price down to $7.58.