In an interview with EXAME, Coinbase's regional director for the Americas spoke about the exchange's expectations for the last quarter of 2024.
This year's US presidential election is expected to have the "greatest impact" in the history of the cryptocurrency market. This is what Fabio Plein, regional director for the Americas at Coinbase, said in an exclusive interview with EXAME. The person responsible for the exchange's operations in Brazil also spoke about expectations for the last quarter of the year.
Regarding the US election, he commented that "it's kind of surreal to imagine that today crypto is one of the important topics in the electoral debate, on the candidates' agendas and it could even be a topic with the power to influence the elections in one direction." Throughout the year, both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris made statements in favor of the sector.
"Today, the United States has more than 52 million Americans with investments in cryptocurrencies. This group has become an important voting bloc and has positioned itself asking for more clarity from candidates. It is no wonder that they react to this by bringing up topics that touch on crypto," explains Plein.
In this sense, he hopes that the dispute will be "the most impactful election in the history of crypto" and will help "define a path for candidates who truly position themselves in favor of updating the financial market, especially for the next generations, overcoming more antiquated systems, which end up excluding and not including people."
Plein also states that the cryptocurrency market is likely to gain more regulatory clarity regardless of whether Harris or Trump wins. "In the scenario that Kamala Harris wins, there is an opportunity above all for Democrats to reset the relationship with crypto, which has been a contentious relationship, blocking the advancement and benefits of the industry."
"There are signs that this could happen, such as the meeting at the White House with important crypto stakeholders, asking for legislation with more clarity, which changes this approach to litigation. It is a turning point and shows that Democrats are calibrating this political calculation in a very close election," he says.
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Future of cryptocurrencies
Regarding the future performance of cryptocurrencies, the Coinbase manager points out that "it is difficult to have a concrete vision at the moment", but the Federal Reserve's decision to start an interest rate cut cycle in the US "tends to signal a time of greater incentive for allocations in assets with more volatility, with greater perception of risk, and this is the case of crypto".
"It's a first step in the direction we were hoping for. It was the cut we were imagining and it indicates a renewed appetite for investment in the industry," he says. However, he considers that it will be necessary to observe the Fed's next monetary decisions and their interpretation by the market to assess the effective impact on the price of digital assets.
The developments in the US elections are also likely to influence this behavior. Plein says that it will be necessary to "observe the measures that will be taken by the winning candidate after the election, which could significantly shape the direction of the industry until next year."
"From our side, we are clear that this is not a topic to take a political stance on, we believe that, regardless of who wins, crypto is a relevant enough sector for either side to have this as an important topic on the government's agenda thinking about bringing more efficiency and financial services to Americans," he says.
He also comments that the winner of the election could take some measures almost immediately that would impact the sector, the main one being the choice of those responsible for leading regulatory bodies, including the SEC. The US Securities and Exchange Commission has become known for its tough stance against crypto, but this could change with a change in its presidency.
"I believe that there will be faster changes, without depending on a longer legislative process," he says. He points out, however, that "there are investors who may be betting more on one side [in the election] than the other and waiting for the elections to make decisions, but we have to see how these two elements unfold."
On the regulatory issue, Plein says that the United States "is behind other markets due to the SEC's stance, but has a great opportunity in the elections to have a reset in the way it looks at this. The country is a hub of talent, technology, capital, and may have a turning point to catch up and close this gap."
Considering all these factors, the Coinbase executive assesses that the cryptocurrency market currently has "more positive factors than in previous scenarios, which may be favorable forces. There are elements that justify a thesis of some optimism for the coming months."
