In the past two days, the crypto market is still in a volatile market.
Yesterday, Bitcoin once broke through $64,000, but with the pullback of U.S. stocks, it has now fallen back to around $62,500.
Ethereum has performed similarly and is currently fluctuating around $2,430.
Most altcoins are also following the market’s correction, with the MEME sector performing the strongest, with neiro, mew, and trump bucking the trend and rising by more than 15%.
Now, everyone is paying attention to the results of the US presidential election. Before the results are announced, the market may not move much.
Next, let’s take a look at the important news and data that are worth paying attention to:
1. Trump's chances of winning are far ahead of Harris
According to the latest data, Trump's probability of being re-elected president has increased significantly to 53.4%, 7.5 percentage points higher than Harris.
Judging from the current situation, the possibility of Trump's election has greatly increased, which is good news for the crypto market.
If Trump wins the election, the market speculates that Robinhood’s general counsel may become the new chairman of the US SEC.
It is worth noting that Garrett has clear differences in policy views with the SEC.
He has said that if he were SEC chairman in past years, he would have introduced a “basic registration system” for cryptocurrency exchanges and brokers. Still, he believes legislation is needed to achieve this goal.
Garrett, a former SEC commissioner, is well-known on Wall Street for his moderation and political acumen.
For Republicans, Garrett becoming SEC chairman appears to be a matter of when, not if.
This news has attracted widespread attention in the market, and everyone is looking forward to seeing major changes in SEC policies in the future.
2. The US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act has gained bipartisan consensus and plans to purchase 1 million Bitcoins in total in the future
The bill establishes a "Bitcoin Purchase Program" to purchase no more than 200,000 bitcoins per year for five years, for a total of 1 million bitcoins. This would account for about 5% of the total supply of bitcoins.
The goal of the program is to ensure that the U.S. government holds a large amount of Bitcoin for the next twenty years, providing the country with a long-term financial hedging tool.
As the election approaches, both parties have begun to support cryptocurrencies in order to win votes from cryptocurrency practitioners, and Trump is particularly enthusiastic about it. He also proposed this idea at the Bitcoin Conference.
Trump has also previously stressed the importance of the United States staying ahead in the cryptocurrency space, suggesting the government could use Bitcoin to pay down its $35 trillion national debt.
If Trump is elected this time, this bill is likely to pass. By then, 5% of Bitcoin will be bought and locked, and combined with the previous 15.4%, the number of Bitcoins circulating in the market will become less and less.
3. Fed's Musallem said: Further interest rate cuts are possible
Given the current economic outlook, Mousallem supported the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points last month and stressed the need for the Fed to remain patient with its policy.
He expects inflation pressures to continue to ease, with both employment and inflation currently in a "good place."
According to the Fed's monitoring tool, by November, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 85.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged is 14.1%.
This suggests that the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to continue to adopt loose monetary policy to address economic challenges.
If Trump is really elected, coupled with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut policy, the market may usher in a relatively large wave of gains by the end of the year.
4. Judge approves FTX restructuring plan
A U.S. court approved FTX’s bankruptcy plan on Monday, marking the start of compensation proceedings two years after the exchange’s collapse.
Under the plan, FTX will use its existing $16.5 billion in recovered assets to repay customers.
About 94% of creditors support the plan, and 98% of them will receive at least 118% of the compensation amount.
Although some creditors were unhappy about not being paid in their original cryptocurrency value, the court decided to settle in cash. In addition, the judge ruled that the value of FTX’s native token FTT is zero.
The market generally expects that this restructuring may result in nearly 10 billion US dollars of funds flowing back into the crypto market.
Overall, the crypto market is currently in a volatile trend, with Bitcoin fluctuating between $59,800 and $67,000.
There is no new narrative in the market at present, and funds and attention are mainly concentrated in the MEME sector.
Next, we can focus on the US election. If it is Trump’s election, coupled with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut policy, Bitcoin may hit a high of $90,000 to $100,000 by the end of the year.
