2024 has started with important news in the financial sphere, highlighting key movements in global markets, the performance of major economies and decisions by central banks. Below are some of the most relevant events:
### **1. Interest Rate Increases**
In response to persistent inflation, many central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB), have maintained a restrictive monetary policy stance. The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate several times throughout 2023 and continues to consider further increases for 2024. These increases are intended to curb consumption and control inflation levels, although they also create uncertainty about economic growth.
### **2. Stock Market Performance**
Stock markets have been volatile so far this year, with sectors such as technology and renewable energy experiencing both gains and losses. Despite concerns about tighter monetary policies, shares of big tech companies have seen solid growth, driven by advances in artificial intelligence and automation. However, sectors more sensitive to interest rates, such as real estate and financials, have seen their valuations fall.
### **3. Technical Recession in Europe**
Some European countries, such as Germany and the United Kingdom, have entered what is known as a âtechnical recession,â defined by two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. This has been the result of the combination of high inflation, tighter fiscal policies, and the energy crisis that continues to affect Europe since Russiaâs invasion of Ukraine. Despite this, the ECB remains committed to its policy of containing inflation, which could prolong economic difficulties in the short term.
### **4. Cryptocurrencies: Rebound and Regulation**
The cryptocurrency sector has seen a moderate rebound after a difficult 2023. Bitcoin and other major coins have shown signs of recovery, albeit with considerable volatility. At the same time, regulators in the United States and Europe are stepping up their efforts to regulate this space, which could have a significant impact on the evolution of the crypto market in the medium term. Discussions around central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) have also gained traction.
### **5. Performance of Emerging Economies**
In emerging markets, countries such as Brazil and India have stood out for their sustained economic growth, despite global challenges. India has exceeded many analysts' expectations, driven by its booming technology sector and structural economic reforms. In contrast, economies such as Argentina and Turkey are facing difficulties, including high inflation and currency devaluation.
### **6. Raw Material Prices**
The commodities market has also seen fluctuations. While the price of oil has fluctuated due to uncertainty surrounding OPEC+ production, gold has served as a safe haven for investors in times of uncertainty. On the other hand, food prices have shown signs of stabilisation, although geopolitical tensions and the effects of climate change could keep this sector volatile.
### **Conclusion**
The global financial landscape in 2024 remains uncertain, with multiple factors potentially influencing the direction of global markets and economies. Central bank policies, geopolitical tensions and the advancement of new technologies will be key factors in determining the direction of the financial crisis.
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