CPI data is about to be announced, and interest rate cuts are expected under non-agricultural data!

1. Suspense of CPI data:

As an important indicator for measuring inflation, CPI is like a "midterm exam" for the market every time it is released. The market generally expects that the CPI data in September will continue the previous downward trend, with a slight increase of 0.1% month-on-month, the lowest increase in the past three months; the year-on-year increase is expected to be 2.3%, slowing for the sixth consecutive month, which is also the mildest growth since the beginning of 2021. If the actual data meets or exceeds expectations, it will further consolidate the market's confidence in the "soft landing" of the US economy, and also provide more solid support for the Fed to continue to cut interest rates.

2. Shock of non-agricultural data:

Looking back at the non-agricultural employment report in September not long ago, its influence is still lingering. Data show that the non-agricultural population surged by 254,000 in September, far exceeding the market expectation of 150,000, and the largest increase since March 2024. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.1% for the first time, showing the strong elasticity of the labor market. This undoubtedly provides the Federal Reserve with more accommodative monetary policy space. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the November interest rate meeting to further support economic recovery.

3. Rising expectations of interest rate cuts:

The rising expectations of interest rate cuts are not only due to the strong non-agricultural data, but also due to subtle changes in the global economic situation. As the prices of international commodities such as crude oil and non-ferrous metals tend to stabilize, and the global economy gradually recovers, the market's expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the future are becoming stronger. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has also repeatedly hinted that as long as economic data continues to improve, future interest rate cuts will be a high probability event.

4. Market impact:

In terms of encryption, as expectations of another interest rate cut rise, the currency circle will look forward to the arrival of a big bull market, which will attract a large number of investors. In terms of the stock market, investor confidence is expected to be further boosted, and the stock market is expected to continue its upward trend. The gold market will also usher in fluctuations, and investors will pay close attention to data changes to adjust their investment strategies. In the foreign exchange market, the trend of the US dollar exchange rate will also be affected by the expectation of interest rate cuts, which will in turn have a chain reaction on global trade and investment. #CPI数据 #非农人数大幅升温 #美降息25个基点预期升温 #牛市前兆 #9月小非农数据高于预期