As Bitcoin (BTC) enters its traditionally bullish fourth quarter, analysts at CryptoQuant suggest that while favorable seasonality is on the horizon, a significant boost in demand will be necessary for the cryptocurrency to reach its ambitious $100,000 target by the end of the year.
In its weekly report on October 2, CryptoQuant highlighted Bitcoinâs strong historical performance during halving years, with price gains of 9%, 59%, and 171% in 2012, 2016, and 2020 respectively. So far in 2024, Bitcoinâs price action has closely mirrored the patterns seen in 2016 and 2020 through September.
However, analysts stress that while Bitcoinâs demand has stabilized, it still requires substantial growth to support further price hikes. Recent monthly fluctuations in demand, ranging from -23,000 to +69,000 BTC since July, are far below Aprilâs surge of 496,000 BTC when Bitcoin neared $70,000.
Institutional interest, particularly from US-based Bitcoin ETFs, could play a key role in driving price increases. The trend has shifted from net selling to net buying, with ETFs moving from offloading 5,000 BTC to acquiring 7,000 BTC in late September. This has been reflected in the $1.8 billion in net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs from September 13 to 30.
CryptoQuant estimates that if demand continues to grow at this pace, Bitcoin could realistically target a price between $85,000 and $100,000 by December. However, external factors such as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Federal Reserveâs monetary policy following its recent 50-basis-point rate cut remain critical variables.$BTC
