October has long been considered one of the strongest months for Bitcoin, but one trader says placing too much importance on the entire month is a mistake.
“I believe that focusing too much on a single month instead of longer periods or time frames is a mistake,” Oliver Velez wrote in an October 2 X post.
Velez emphasized that while October is often referred to as “Uptober” because of its strong historical returns, it is typically the second or late half of October that tends to see strong price gains, not the first half of the month.
Sharing the same view, Timothy Peterson, founder of Cane Island Alternative Advisors, stated in an October 2 X post that:
“Most of ‘Uptober’ doesn’t start until after the 19th. Be patient.”
Velez suggests that traders take a broader view by looking at statistics from October through May.
This comes after both Bitcoin and Ether have been in decline since October 1, falling 5.6% and 11.4% respectively.
Peterson pointed out that this October has had “the worst start for Bitcoin in at least the last ten years.”
However, Velez believes that October's slow start could just be a stepping stone to a stronger rally later in the month.
“The weakness from September to early October is what sets up the subsequent boom. Think of the market as squatting during this period before bouncing and flying high in the next few months,” Velez said.
“Regardless of what economists with their blackboards and elaborate charts say, history shows that October kicks off the strongest part of the cycle.”
Meanwhile, analyst Titan of Crypto noted that the asset performed better than expected in September, which is typically a negative month for cryptocurrencies. However, with October starting off slowly, traders are bracing for the worst this month.
“September started in the red, with everyone predicting $40,000. However, it ended with a green monthly candle, with the 38.2% Fibonacci level holding,” they shared in an October 2 X post.
“Now, October has just begun, and things are looking bleak again,” they added.
