Bitcoin’s price took a hit, dropping by 8.3% between September 30 and October 1, touching a two-week low of $60,207. Although it managed to bounce back slightly to $61,300 on October 2, Bitcoin still sits 16.6% below its all-time high from March 2024. In comparison, traditional assets like gold and the S&P 500 are much closer to their peak levels, hovering within 2% of their recent records.

Given Bitcoin’s underperformance, you might expect traders to be bearish. However, despite all the global uncertainty, including geopolitical tensions and an upcoming US election, Bitcoin derivatives tell a different story. In fact, pro traders aren’t showing signs of panic, signaling that their outlook remains steady despite short-term price pressures.

Bitcoin’s Unique Role in Uncertain Times

On September 17, BlackRock released a report emphasizing Bitcoin’s distinct features, like scarcity and decentralization, describing it as a “flight to safety” asset in times of geopolitical uncertainty. With tensions intensifying in the Middle East, where Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel, concerns about Bitcoin’s performance are increasing. Additionally, US elections in November add another layer of market uncertainty. These factors have influenced Bitcoin’s price, but pro traders appear to be holding their ground.

How Are Bitcoin Traders Positioned?

Despite the price dip, Bitcoin futures show that pro traders are maintaining a neutral stance. As of October 2, the premium for two-month Bitcoin futures has held steady at around 7%, slightly up from 6% the previous week. This premium indicates that traders are still treating Bitcoin futures as a stable investment, even with recent price fluctuations.

To further gauge sentiment, analysts look at the 25% delta skew—a measure of the difference in price between call (buy) and put (sell) options. A skew of +7% or higher suggests fear of downside risk, but right now, the skew remains neutral, indicating that traders aren’t overly concerned about further price declines.

Final Thoughts

While Bitcoin’s price decline might cause some to worry, the behavior of professional traders suggests they see this as a temporary blip. With futures premiums holding steady and the options market showing no significant signs of panic, it seems that pro traders remain confident in Bitcoin’s long-term potential, even as geopolitical and market uncertainties loom large.

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