The Bitcoin cycle is broken! The ETF ruined it!
6 charts to understand what's happening with Bitcoin!
We have already reached a historic development that has never occurred on Bitcoin before.
For the first time, we have a long-range ($57K-$70K), lasting around 8 months.
Many are discussing manipulation, but it's impossible to manipulate BTCâs price over such an extended period.
This horizontal line is strange, but it's mainly due to a premature pre-halving surge driven by the Bitcoin ETF.
Itâs also the first time weâve reached an ATH before the halving.
The ETFs sped things up; the growth would likely have been healthier without them.
Historically, all cycles have shown post-halving solid growth and an accumulation phase before the halving.
This is the first time weâve seen a strong growth phase before the halving.
The range phases are shifted because of the ETF!
Since the Bitcoin ETF has limited the halving catalyst, a new catalyst will be needed to increase the price.
In the short term, the US elections and US Bitcoin policy could be powerful catalysts that push us back in the right direction.
Without a catalyst, it will be hard to recover.
The RSI is also interesting.
The RSI is at 63, close to the historical average of 65.
We can see the difference from other halvings, with front-running before the halving.
Everything points to us being on a rising trend.
In any case, Bitcoinâs Realized Price remains consistent with previous cycles.
Bitcoin has always experienced long periods of range followed by short bursts of significant growth.
Bitcoin is usually in a boring phase, but when it rises, it rises sharply.
This is the very principle behind the Stock-to-Flow chart.
The orange curve reflects this dull behavior, followed by a sharp rise.
There can be delays, as we see in this cycle due to external disruptors (ETF, government, etc.), but the long-term principle remains unchanged.
Most of you are only interested in Bitcoin because when it rises, everything rises with it, and you're absolutely rightâitâs the driver.
But Bitcoin is a lazy machine that, once awakened, makes big moves. You need to be patient and understand that the next levels are inevitable.
I hope you've found this article helpful.
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