Bitcoin’s bull market cycle has accelerated, running 100 days ahead of its typical four-year cycle, according to a new report by CoinMarketCap (CMC).
Bitcoin (BTC) is potentially on the verge of breaking its traditional four-year cycle and entering a supercycle, CMC stated in its third-quarter market research report released on October 3.
According to CMC Research, several factors indicate Bitcoin’s potential entrance into a supercycle, driven by institutional adoption, BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and evolving market dynamics.
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is a crucial concept reflecting the cryptocurrency’s market dynamics. This cycle is closely tied to Bitcoin halving events, which cut BTC miner rewards approximately every four years or after 210,000 new BTC blocks are mined.
Bitcoin halvings typically have a significant impact on BTC prices, with bull markets historically peaking between 518 and 546 days after halving events.
According to CMC, Bitcoin’s price performance, along with the most recent BTC halving—which took place on April 20, 2024—suggests that a potential BTC all-time high could occur significantly earlier than typically expected.
Estimating Bitcoin’s current bull market progress at 40.66%, CMC noted:
“This time, Bitcoin is ahead by about 100 days, pointing to a potential peak between mid-May and mid-June 2025 […] Despite this early acceleration, there are signs of slowing infrastructure growth, which could indicate that broader market dynamics are evolving.”
Among the factors suggesting that BTC may be breaking its traditional four-year cycle, CMC highlighted Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with traditional assets like gold and tech stocks, as well as growing institutional adoption from firms like MicroStrategy and Semler Scientific.
On October 2, Forbes published an article titled “Why Bitcoin is becoming a part of traditional finance,” further supporting the notion that BTC is gaining traction in the financial sector.
In the report, CMC also listed the top five active sectors in the crypto industry, with memecoins and Ethereum leading.
Despite a rally at the end of Q3, 16 sectors experienced at least 10% market cap losses, with declines reaching up to 40%. The storage, lending, and privacy sectors were the hardest hit, suffering losses of 39%, 37%, and 31%, respectively.
Additionally, the report noted that the United States continues to lead the global crypto user base with a 17% market share, followed by India with over 9%, and Brazil with 8%.
CMC highlighted that Bitcoin remained the most popular coin globally in Q3, with market shares ranging from 45% in Africa to 52% in Oceania.
