We have shared data on Bitcoin’s quarterly return rate. From historical data, the average return rate in the fourth quarter exceeded 80%. Although history does not necessarily represent the future, this has made many people look forward to the market after entering October. As shown in the figure below.
While everyone was still immersed in the market rebound, with the missiles launched by Iran to Israel falling, Bitcoin fell by about 4% in the first two days of October, which is in sharp contrast to the average increase of 20% in October in the past 10 years. In contrast, gold rose by more than 1%.
The current geopolitical situation in the Middle East does have a great impact on the global economy. Many people attribute the rise in gold prices to the intensification of the Middle East crisis, which I can agree with. But there are also many people who attribute the decline of Bitcoin to Iran’s missiles. I feel that this is a bit of a forced reasoning for the decline of Bitcoin. I can only say that there may be a little bit of relationship, but it is only a little bit.
Bitcoin is in the short-term pressure zone in the range of $64,500-68,500. The current short-term support level is around $61,200, and the strong support level below is around $54,300. It rebounded to $65,000 a few days ago, and now it continues to fluctuate and fall a little, which is also a normal fluctuation range in our opinion. Moreover, since the end of last month (September), many leveraged positions have entered the range of $64,000-65,000. The market needs to explode these leverages, which is healthier.
Of course, the geopolitical situation will indeed affect the crypto market. After all, the crypto market is also a financial market from a certain perspective. As for whether the crypto market will be affected by the Middle East crisis and lead to further decline, this may still depend on the Americans. If the Americans forcefully intervene, the crypto market may also experience a sharp decline, and it is not ruled out that it will directly fall to the support level of $54,300.
And if a larger black swan event that we cannot predict occurs in the next few months, it is not ruled out that Bitcoin will directly plunge to around 45,000. But don’t be afraid, if such a large-scale black swan event really occurs, you can boldly buy Bitcoin at that time.
