I see that many friends still have various questions about the application for BTC spot ETF. Today I will help you briefly sort out the ins and outs of BTC spot ETF.
[What happened in the past] - [What recent developments] - [What will happen in the future]
【past】
1. Grayscale applied N times to convert its GBTC into a real spot ETF, but was rejected by the SEC.
- GBTC cannot be redeemed, so there has always been a price difference. Now the price difference is -13%, the highest point in the past two years.
-The peak spread is +40% (the peak of the bull market), and the most desperate spread has been -45% (the lowest point in the industry)
-On the contrary, if it becomes an ETF, its price will strictly track BTC, because redemption and position adjustment are very smooth.
future】
6. SEC loses the case = SEC must give clear reasons, but ≠ SEC will definitely approve BTC spot ETF
-However, futures ETFs have been approved, so it will be difficult to write down the reason for rejection.
-Without any reason, the SEC may be pressured to approve a BTC spot ETF. Of course, the SEC can also continue to refuse forcefully.
-Timeline? Not sure yet
-Will you criticize Grayscale? The negative premium of GBTC has climbed to a new high in two years, indicating that there is a medium probability of this.
-Will BlackRock be approved? Judging from BlackRock’s past application success rate, this probability is higher.
7. What changes will happen in the market if BTC spot ETF is approved?
- Last time CT misrepresented wrong news, which brought a 10% increase to BTC. If it is true, the effect should be better.
- Give traditional funds a simpler way to allocate BTC, no need to register Coinbase, no need to download a BTC wallet
-For Crypto, the industry does not need traditional funds to enter in large quantities, let alone "running into the market." Even if these funds only make a "defensive allocation" of 1% of the position, it will be a very strong positive capital inflow for the BTC market.
