As we enter the last quarter of 2024, the global crypto market is being shaped by both macroeconomic factors and on-chain data. While the liquidity flow from China continues, the acceleration of monetary expansion in the United States is noteworthy. This situation has the potential to start a new bullish cycle for crypto assets, while the ISM Index, one of the important indicators of the American business cycle, deeply affects altcoin markets in particular. This article will examine how the crypto market is being shaped in the last quarter of 2024 within the framework of macroeconomic and on-chain dynamics.
📌China and US Liquidity Policies
China’s increasing liquidity flows in 2021 have been a source of growth for crypto assets, especially in the Asian market. This trend continues in 2024, with capital flows from China providing new liquidity to the crypto market. On the other hand, the United States’ monetary expansion policy has accelerated with interest rate cuts and monetary easing measures. These steps by the Fed may inject liquidity into the US financial markets and have positive effects on crypto markets.
On-Chain Data and Technical Indicators for $BTC
On-chain data is giving a strong bullish signal, especially for Bitcoin. Bitcoin's on-chain transfer volume, the increase in the number of wallets, despite the current decline, and the increase in mining activities create a healthy market sentiment. However, it seems that BTC is equipped with enough "fuel" for this rise. Although the point reached is risky in the short term, it increases the confidence of investors in the medium and long term, and shows that Bitcoin has the potential to gain strong value by the end of the year.
📌ISM Index and Altcoin Market Relationship
The ISM Manufacturing Index, one of the most important business cycle indicators in the United States, has become a critical indicator affecting altcoin dynamics in crypto markets. While values below 50 in the ISM Index indicate economic contraction, values above it symbolize economic expansion. As we enter the last quarter of 2024, the ISM Index is approaching its bottom. This situation increases expectations among crypto investors about the beginning of a potential altcoin season.#Altcoindominance is also parallel to the ISM, signaling that both indicators have bottomed.
📌Altcoin Season: Expectations and Risks
Altcoins are showing signs of recovery from the bottom levels along with the decline in the ISM Index. General growth expectations in the markets may herald a strong rise in cryptocurrencies. However, this growth is likely to be weaker compared to previous cycles and volatility is likely to be lower. Increased liquidity may increase the attractiveness of alternative projects and altcoins in particular. However, in this process, risk management and macroeconomic developments should be closely monitored for altcoin markets to exhibit healthy growth.
📌Short-Term Risks and Probabilities
Although there is a positive outlook for the last quarter of the year, risks such as the possibility of a short-term war still pose a threat to crypto markets. Markets have not yet fully stabilized, and external factors such as geopolitical risks, regulations, and macroeconomic uncertainties can trigger volatility in crypto assets. However, strategic investments made considering the risks can offer investors significant earning opportunities.
The last quarter of 2024 marks an interesting period for crypto markets in terms of both macroeconomic and technical dynamics. While liquidity flows from China and the US create a positive environment for Bitcoin and altcoin markets, the bottoming of the ISM Index can be considered as the beginning of the altcoin season. However, this growth cycle is expected to be weaker than previous periods and volatility to remain low. Although short-term risks remain, the last quarter of the year will continue to offer positive opportunities for investors.👍
