Judging from the data, the decline of#BTCtonight is highly consistent with the opening time of the U.S. stock market. Basically, it falls synchronously with the opening of the U.S. stock market. After all, most investors are a group of people. So what is the reason for the decline of the U.S. stock market?

There are only a few reasons. The first one is Powell’s speech yesterday, which turned the 125 basis point rate cut into a 100 basis point rate cut. But as I personally understood yesterday, this may not be a bad thing. After all, it increases the probability that the US economy will not go into recession. However, some investors may think that this situation will increase the burden of a soft landing.

This possibility is quite low, because the discussion started early this morning, and there has been a day's reaction time. Moreover, when the stock index futures opened, there was almost no reaction, and the market only fell when it opened, so the impact in this regard should be the lowest.

The second is the signal of a local war. Israel has carried out air strikes and artillery bombardments in many places in southern Lebanon. Every war will affect the stock market to some extent. However, the war has been mentioned in Space last Friday. @Trader_S18 and @qinbafrank have made it very clear that as long as the local war does not involve the United States, it is not a big problem, and the impact on oil and inflation is actually limited.

Judging from the time of announcement, this is possible. We can see that the price of U.S. oil has started to rise after the war started, so the possibility of a stock market reaction caused by the war is quite high.

The third is that several survey data show that APPLE’s iPhone shipments may not be ideal, which has lowered expectations for the future, and even rated Apple as a sell. So we can see that Apple’s stock price fell badly at the opening, and Tesla’s stock price also fell badly at the opening. These may also be the fuse.

Looking further down, the data are actually all positive. For example, Japan's new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba hopes that the Bank of Japan can continue to maintain loose monetary policy. For example, the PMI data is acceptable and the job vacancy problem is not a big deal. The focus is on Friday's non-agricultural data, so if it is really caused by war, it will most likely be digested in two to three working days.

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