The crypto market is currently very "bullish", but what kind of bull market is it in now? From different dimensions, the author believes that the current emotional bull has begun, the technical bull in technical analysis has not yet broken through, the overall economic and financial bull is still coming quietly, and it will take time to apply the bull. Below, the author will talk about it.

Source: BitPush

The crypto market sentiment bull has begun

In September, Bitcoin continued its upward rebound from a low near $52,528.6, reaching a high of $66,500, a gain of 26.5%. The author believes that the rise during this period was mainly driven by bull market sentiment.​

The sentiment bullishness in the crypto market mainly comes from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. In early September or earlier, the market no longer doubted that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates, and the main discussion was about the extent of the rate cut. Therefore, when Bitcoin fell to a low, decisive bottom-buying funds appeared in the market. These funds were mainly betting that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates, which effectively pushed Bitcoin to reach US$60,000.​

The U.S. Federal Reserve announced on September 18 that it would lower the federal benchmark interest rate target range by 50 basis points to a level between 4.75% and 5.00%. This is the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve since March 2020, and it also symbolizes the shift from a tightening cycle of monetary policy to an easing cycle. Spurred by the news that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 50 basis points, Bitcoin continued its second wave of gains, pushing directly from $60,000 to over $65,000. From a correlation point of view, the strong correlation between U.S. stocks and Bitcoin can effectively verify the author’s guess. Last week, Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. stocks reached its highest level in two years, a level only surpassed in the second quarter of 2022, according to IntoTheBlock data.​

The author believes that this bullish sentiment should have another wave. This is mainly due to China's recent significant interest rate cuts and stimulus plans. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on September 26. The meeting emphasized the need to work hard to boost the capital market, vigorously guide medium and long-term funds to enter the market, and open up the congestion points for social security, insurance, financial management and other funds to enter the market. It is necessary to support mergers, acquisitions and reorganizations of listed companies, steadily promote the reform of public funds, and study and announce policies and measures to protect small and medium-sized investors. On September 27, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points from September 27 to provide long-term liquidity of approximately 1 trillion yuan to the financial market. After this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions will be approximately 6.6%. The interest rate cut by the People's Bank of China is the largest in the past four years. Overall, China's monetary policy has also undergone major adjustments simultaneously, and China's water release effect is expected to still push Bitcoin to continue to strengthen.

Source: BitPush

The technical bull in market analysis has not yet broken through

As mentioned above, the author believes that the current encryption market is mainly driven by good news about the overall economy, which makes the encryption market the first to get out of the emotional bull. However, from the perspective of technical analysis, the current technical bull has not yet broken through, and has entered a huge period. Pressure Zone ($65,000-$70,000).​

The author has published many articles before discussing the huge pressure on Bitcoin between US$65,000 and US$70,000. This is essentially the position that Bitcoin has failed to reach despite many favorable market conditions. For example, Trump's positive remarks at the Bitcoin conference in August caused market sentiment to rise, but it quickly fell back. Below, we review this from some historical data.​

Judging from historical data, when Bitcoin miners were between $69,000 and $71,000, mining pools shifted, OTC trading volume surged, and large listed mining companies reduced their holdings significantly. Data shows that on June 10, miners sold 1,200 Bitcoins through OTC transactions, setting the highest daily trading volume in two months, when Bitcoin was near $70,000. Another indicator is that ETF funds show obvious signs of reduction when they are near $70,000.​

On September 27, well-known trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on social media that he had reduced some positions, sold some assets, and tried his best to stick to the plan despite the huge FOMO everywhere. He expressed his views on the bull market in an article on the A reasonable profit-taking area for early Bitcoin buyers will be at $65,000, which may also mean that this is the last upward momentum. I don't think it will break through $70,000 before the US election. Therefore, I will not choose to increase my position here. If it hits $68,000, I would rather choose to liquidate and fall to the $60,000 area before re-entering the market.”

Regarding Eugene's point of view, the author actually agrees with it from a rational perspective. Overall, Bitcoin will face heavy selling pressure in the range of US$68,000-$70,000, and a sharp correction is more likely. However, considering the recent monetary policy of the Central Bank of China, I will be more optimistic. It is not even impossible for Bitcoin to directly break through $70,000 due to some sudden big gains. For example, in the last round, Tesla accepted Bitcoin as payment, which directly drove away Bitcoin. Overall, I believe that to guard against a deep correction, one should not be too aggressive, but one should not get off the train easily.

Source: BitPush

The financial bull in the crypto market is coming quietly

When viewed from a technical analysis perspective, it may not be an exaggeration to be cautious, but if viewed from a financial perspective, investors should be more confident. From a certain perspective, if Bitcoin experiences a deep decline, this will be an excellent bargain hunting opportunity.​

American investors have strong purchasing power and have become the main buying force. Julio Moreno, director of research at CryptoQuant, posted on the​

Activity on the Ethereum chain has increased significantly, DeFi transactions have increased significantly, and the market has shown a rare enthusiasm since the Cancun upgrade. Over the past week or so, there has been a surge in activity on the Ethereum chain, causing transaction fees to soar. Between September 16 and 26, average gas fees were 498% higher than the previous 30-day average, with Ethereum’s median transaction cost rising to $1.69 from $0.09 at the beginning of the month. In addition, the transaction volume of the Ethereum Decentralized Exchange (DEX) increased by 9% month-on-month, and the total amount of Ethereum transfers increased by 17% month-on-month, further pushing up transaction fees. With the increase in activity on the Ethereum chain, the trend of Ethereum has begun to be slightly stronger than that of Bitcoin, and the performance of altcoins has also strengthened.​

Institutions or whales are beginning to be optimistic about the long-term price trend of Bitcoin. The latest data on block transactions released by Deribit officials show that on September 28, the largest Bitcoin block option transaction on the platform was that a user earned US$1,479,000, purchased a Bitcoin call option of US$90,000 at the end of the year, and sold it at the end of the year. $62,000 put option for a total of 488 Bitcoins. Officials explained that this operation is long-term bullish, believing that the price of Bitcoin will rise sharply at the end of the year, and a profit will be made when the price is higher than 60,000 at the time of delivery.​

The continuous minting volume of stablecoins has increased significantly, and some institutions are obviously optimistic. Markus Thielen, founder of 10X Research, said that stablecoin minting increased sharply after the Federal Reserve’s July meeting, when the Fed announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged but hinted that it might loosen policy in September. Stablecoin minting approached $10 billion in the following weeks, injecting liquidity into the cryptocurrency market and significantly outpacing spot ETF flows. Separately, a new report from 10X Research shows that Bitcoin’s strong gains since the Federal Reserve’s mid-September interest rate cut and China’s stimulus package have allowed it to break out of its downward trend. As Bitcoin breaks through $65,000, it will quickly rise to $70,000 and then hit all-time highs in the short term.​

Overall, an important sign of significant capital inflows in the crypto market is the sharp increase in stablecoins; in addition, the on-chain activity of Ethereum and the capital inflow of Bitcoin ETFs are also very obvious signs. In addition, the activities of some giant whales and institutions have once again shown that this rise is expected to be more lasting, and a real bull market is about to begin.

Source: BitPush

Crypto market application bull is still brewing

At the application level, although there are no very disruptive applications in the encryption market, the results of a series of recent conferences have once again demonstrated to the world the strong technical strength and business prospects of Web3.​

Recently, data from the Onchain Summer event released by Base showed that the hackathon attracted the active participation of more than 7,500 builders, who jointly submitted more than 1,250 innovative projects, and ultimately 82 projects stood out after fierce competition.​

From September 20th to September 21st, Beijing time, Breakpoint, the largest and most influential event in the Solana ecosystem, was held in Singapore. At the Breakpoint event, Solana and its ecological projects demonstrated a series of results, which attracted much market attention. For example, asset management giant Franklin Templeton will launch native mutual funds on the Solana chain, and Hivemapper announced that it has begun selling map data to three of the top ten map service providers in the world. The Solana ecological project also showcases the latest technological progress and results.​

In the Bitcoin ecosystem, Fractal Bitcoin was launched on September 9, 2024. It introduced a hybrid mining model and developed very rapidly. In terms of Ethereum and its ecology, Ethereum has initially determined to carry out a major upgrade of Ethereum Pectra in February 2025, and the tokens of the leading re-staking project EigenLayer will soon be launched.

Source: BitPush

However, overall, the encryption market is still essentially lackluster in terms of applied innovation industry. Although the current situation of the encryption market is fundamentally different from the perspective of emotions and capital inflows, from the perspective of technological innovation and application implementation, it is difficult for this bull market to start immediately and vigorously.

[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions contained in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.

• This article is reprinted with permission from: "PANews"

• Original author: BitPush