Author: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily
EigenLayer's protocol token EIGEN will officially enter circulation today.
According to the official disclosure of the Eigen Foundation, the transfer restriction of EIGEN is expected to be removed at 21:00 PST time on September 30, 2024 (13:00 Beijing time on October 1).
Since EigenLayer has previously conducted two rounds of large-scale airdrops, and the protocol has activated the re-staking function of EIGEN tokens before lifting transfer restrictions, there is a certain misunderstanding in the market about the actual circulation data of EIGEN.
In order to dispel this information fog, Kairos Research, a cryptographic analysis agency, recently conducted a round of analysis on the actual circulation status of EIGEN based on EIGEN's airdrop claim rate and pledge data. However, due to the approaching unlocking date, the real-time data changes very quickly, so we will combine Kairos Research's data model to recalculate the circulation status of EIGEN a few hours before the opening. In addition, Odaily Planet Daily will also sort out potential events and nodes that may cause the EIGEN circulation to expand in the future, hoping to help everyone's decision-making.
Airdrop claim status
First of all, the EIGEN currently in circulation all come from two rounds of airdrop activities (Stakedrop 1 and Stakedrop 2). Stakedrop 1 was originally planned to release 113 million EIGEN (6.75%), and Stakedrop 2 was originally planned to release 86 million EIGEN, totaling approximately 200 million EIGEN, accounting for approximately 11.9% of the total supply of 1.67 billion Genesis coins.
However, this data does not represent the actual circulation status, because there are a large number of unclaimed shares in both seasons of airdrops.
Among them, the claim window for Stakedrop 1 was closed at 23:59 PST on September 7 (14:59 Beijing time on September 8). Dune data showed that the final claim rate was about 85.4%, which means that approximately 95.74 million EIGEN were released.
Currently, the claim of Stakedrop 2 is still in progress, but the real-time claim rate is temporarily only 27%, which means 23.26 million EIGEN will be released.
In summary, the total amount of EIGEN claimed in the two seasons of airdrops is about 119 million, accounting for about 7% of the total supply of Genesis.
EIGEN re-staking status
From the calculation in the previous part, we can know that the EIGEN data released through airdrops is about 119 million, but this is still not the actual circulation data of EIGEN at present, because EigenLayer has activated the re-staking function of EIGEN tokens very early and attracted most of the coin holders to re-stake.
Since there is a 7-day cooling-off period before unstaking, the EIGEN currently being re-staked is in a restricted circulation state.
Dune data shows that the number of EIGEN tokens currently in re-staking is about 69.36 million - this means that there are actually only about 49.64 million EIGEN in full circulation, accounting for about 3% of the total supply of Genesis.
Latent variable analysis and monitoring
It should be emphasized that the above analysis of EIGEN's circulating data is limited to the analysis of EIGEN shares that are currently in full circulation. From a technical point of view, there are actually still several types of shares that can enter circulation at any time. These shares may affect the real-time circulating data at any time, so it is necessary to further monitor this.
The first potential "variable" is the airdrop claim rate of Stakedrop 2. EIGEN claimed through this round of airdrops will be able to flow directly to the market. This data is recommended to be monitored through Dune's data dashboard. There is a key time node here, that is, the external address claim for node operators in Stakedrop 2 will be opened on October 6, which may be a larger circulation variable.
Odaily Note: The so-called external address claim means that EigenLayer allows Operators to use new addresses to claim airdrops without directly connecting the operator's main address to the claim interface.
The second type of "variable" is the re-staking status of EIGEN. In fact, judging from the data in recent days, a small peak in unstaking has arrived. It is still recommended to monitor this data through the Dune dashboard.
The third type of "variable" is the incentive plan that EigenLayer will launch in October. The plan aims to issue EIGEN incentives to qualified stakers and operating nodes on a weekly basis. EigenLayer officials said that the incentive will implement retroactive rewards based on the staking situation since August 15, 2024, and the first batch of rewards will be available every week starting in October. In the first year of the implementation of the plan, it is expected that approximately 6,695 EIGEN will be distributed, equivalent to 4% of the initial supply of EIGEN tokens.
Although the amount of EIGEN released by this incentive plan is large, considering that the plan adopts a quasi-linear release mechanism based on weeks, the impact on the circulating disk data in the early stage will not be too great.
Risk Warning
Based on the above, it can be seen that after the transfer restrictions of EIGEN are lifted this afternoon, it is estimated that only about 49.64 million tokens will be in full circulation, accounting for about 3% of the total supply of Genesis. Based on the current valuation of around US$4 in major pre-market trading markets, the initial circulation size is expected to be about US$200 million.
Considering the fundamentals of EigenLayer and its market popularity, it is expected that EIGEN will usher in a round of fierce price competition after the opening of major exchanges. Investors are advised to be alert to volatility risks.
As for the next few days, multiple potential variables may affect the current circulating stock situation. Investors should actively monitor real-time trends and make trading decisions prudently.
