Shigeru Ishiba’s election as Japan’s new Prime Minister on Monday sent financial markets into turmoil, with Japanese stocks and risky assets like Bitcoin (BTC) taking a hit. Bitcoin, which had surged to as high as $66,300 over the weekend, fell 4% to around $63,500 after the announcement.
The decline is attributed to Ishiba’s past support for interest rate hikes and higher corporate taxes by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). This hawkish monetary policy stance could further fuel the current volatility by raising fears of a possible new rate hike in the crypto market. In July, the BOJ wiped out billions of dollars from the crypto market by hiking interest rates, and investors are worried that a possible new hike led by Ishiba could have even greater implications.
But not all analysts share that concern. Ishiba’s election is unlikely to lead to further rate hikes, said Steven Glass, an analyst at Pella Funds Management in Sydney. “The BOJ is unlikely to raise policy rates,” Glass said, citing the fragility of Japan’s economy and insufficient inflation levels.
The move comes after a strong September, when Bitcoin saw a 20% rally amid more favorable global financial conditions, such as the Fed’s 0.5% rate cut and China’s monetary stimulus. However, analysts warn that Japan’s economic policies, especially under the influence of its new leader, could have far-reaching consequences for the crypto market. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes has previously called the yen “the most important macro variable” for cryptocurrencies and tech stocks. In May, he said Japan’s weak yen could propel Bitcoin to new highs, but the BOJ’s July rate hike triggered a global sell-off in stocks, sending Bitcoin below $50,000 for the first time since January.
