First of all, ask yourself, the 1 million yuan in your mind, does it refer to RMB or US dollars?
Let’s first clarify the direction, and then we will expand the argument a little bit. If you want 1 million RMB, then if you pay a little attention to the cryptocurrency circle, you will know that this 1 million RMB will not last long. The earliest possible price may be in 2025, which is next year.
2024 is an important halving cycle, and the halving will take place in April 2024. If we follow the trend of BTC after each halving cycle and do a mean analysis, we can get this number. In Q4 of 2025, BTC may see a price of $140,000.
I know what retail investors will definitely say, you are trying to find a sword by carving on the boat, which is basically nonsense. There is no mean reversion and no control. Can the data produced using the formula in the EXCEL table be trusted?
If you are an outsider, then we will talk about outsiders' words. Since you are not in the circle anyway, I am just talking nonsense and you can just listen to it and have fun. Why bother about whether the formula can be backtested or whether the mean regresses? These have nothing to do with us. You just need to know that as a disruptive and innovative financial tool, it is highly likely that Bitcoin will reach 1 million RMB per coin.
If you are an insider, let's put aside the issue of 1 million RMB and discuss whether it is possible to reach 1 million USD. If you are an insider, let's talk about the insider's words. Many people will pay attention to the fact that if a Bitcoin reaches 1 million USD, then one of its functions as a currency, which is the payment function, will definitely be weakened.
Why?
It's very simple. There are 10 zeros on a Zimbabwean dollar, so it's not easy to make change when you buy things!
To use another example, a family may only own one bitcoin. If you ask your family to go to the supermarket to buy soy sauce or vinegar, it is not easy to pay. Doesn’t this destroy the payment function?
But there is no need to worry at all.
According to its creation mechanism, Bitcoin can be precisely divided to 8 decimal places, and the mechanism ensures its accuracy. In other words, we assume that the tiny unit of 8 decimal places is called a nanobit. When Bitcoin is worth 1 million US dollars, a nanobit is only priced at 0.01 US dollars, which just meets the smallest currency unit in the current American society.
You see, will payment still be a problem?
The second key question is, can Bitcoin eventually reach such a high value? This is not inevitable, but possible.
Maybe you can achieve it, maybe you can't
Maybe another value marker will emerge and replace Bitcoin. Maybe Bitcoin has not disappeared, but human society has disappeared. All of these are possible. We are just saying that the price of Bitcoin, 1 million US dollars per coin, is possible.
Why?
Let's do a simple math calculation. Gold is a recognized value storage tool, so there's no need to discuss this. Do you have some gold saved now? The price in China is more than 600 yuan per gram.
How much gold do governments around the world have in reserve now? I'll give you a rough estimate: about 35,000 tons.
So what is the current market value of gold?
I used the data from BlackRock analysts and the total market value of the global gold market is over 20 billion US dollars. Let me ask you again, how much gold reserves are there in the entire earth?
Let me give you another rough number: it's about 400 million tons.
You use 400 billion/35000, about 100 billion, in other words, you can create another 100 billion 200 billion market value. What about Bitcoin? According to the rules of minting, there are only 21 million Bitcoins in total. Among the global commodities, the current total market value of Bitcoin is closely behind gold. If you agree with the value of gold and can agree that it will continue to grow.
As digital gold, the price of a single Bitcoin is not only far more than 1 million US dollars, but it is also possible to exceed 100 million US dollars.
Of course, this calculation is not serious and should not be done this way. I am just trying to use the total value perspective to correlate Bitcoin and gold, so that we can understand the upper limit of Bitcoin's value. Don't take it too seriously.
But the price of each Bitcoin will indeed continue to rise with the release of liquidity, and bubbles will definitely exist. But Bitcoin is a currency without fundamentals. Its underlying logic is liquidity, and in the contemporary economic system of human society, liquidity must always be released.
This is the basic logic behind Bitcoin's continued appreciation
This is not nonsense, it is serious❗
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