Author: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily
“It’s reached its daily limit again!”
“It has risen by more than 130 points!”
"Qidian.com author went all in on A-shares, made over 3 million, and then simply stopped writing!"
"A new stock starting with CL has risen more than 17 times today. Isn't this more terrifying than the Meme coin on SOL?"
"Someone made 520,000 RMB in one morning. According to statistics, A-share investors made an average of 47,000 RMB in 4 days!"
As the Federal Reserve took the lead in cutting interest rates, the global market has long since started a "flooding tide". A-shares have also started a new round of "recovering lost ground" under the stimulation of a number of favorable policies of the central bank. It is understood that on September 30, the turnover of the two A-share markets exceeded 250 trillion yuan, setting a new historical record; it took only 35 minutes to break the trillion-yuan turnover, setting a new "fastest trillion-yuan record in history". The crazy market is attracting more and more investors to join, and many cryptocurrency practitioners have claimed that "large amounts of funds have been withdrawn, and the goal is to hit the daily limit of A-shares". On the other hand, the relationship between cryptocurrency and US stocks is also increasing. According to IntoTheBlock data, last week the correlation between BTC and the US stock market reached the highest level since Q2 2022. After the Bitcoin spot ETF and Ethereum spot ETF were successively passed, the above situation is also a side epitome of the further deepening of the coupling between the traditional financial market and the cryptocurrency industry.
In this article, Odaily Planet Daily will retrospectively sort out the key nodes of Bitcoin prices since this year, and take a glimpse into the correlation between Bitcoin, as a "barometer" of cryptocurrency, and the corresponding performance of US stocks and A shares in different periods.
Back to 2024: BTC price key nodes VS US stocks and A-share performance
At the beginning of the year, the milestone event of "Bitcoin spot ETF approved by the US SEC" became the best annotation for the accelerated mainstreaming process of the cryptocurrency industry. Looking back at the performance of BTC since January this year, although it has experienced several months of volatility and multiple price drops after breaking through the new high, compared with other investment targets in the same period, it still belongs to the ranks of "high-quality assets and safe-haven assets". The following is a summary of the key points of BTC and the corresponding performance of US stocks and A shares from January to September this year:
January 11th - Bitcoin spot ETF officially approved
On January 11, 2024, local time, the US SEC officially approved several Bitcoin spot ETF funds, thus unveiling a new process of "mainstreaming cryptocurrency". Although the matter was "exposed in advance" two days ago due to the theft of the official account of the US SEC X platform, the Bitcoin price reacted relatively coldly after the previous slight increase, but compared with the past, it still showed a "stable and improving" situation, which also laid a solid foundation for the subsequent breakthrough of historical highs.
At that time,
BTC price is around $46,632;
The Shanghai Composite Index of A-shares is around 2881 points;
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was around 37,584 points.
BTC Price
Shanghai Composite Index
Dow Jones
March 14th - BTC hits new high again, "no longer owes anyone"
On March 14, with the continuous inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs, U.S. stock investors' enthusiasm for investing in Bitcoin has been growing, the cryptocurrency industry has also been immersed in the optimistic atmosphere of the "crypto bull market", and the Solana Meme coin craze has also begun to emerge. Many star projects that have previously received tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of dollars are also gearing up and preparing for TGE and listing on leading exchanges. Amidst the positive trends, the price of Bitcoin has broken through previous highs one after another, and finally surpassed the previous historical high of around US$69,000 on the 14th, and has risen all the way to more than US$73,000.
At that time,
BTC price is around $73,097;
The Shanghai Composite Index of A-shares is around 3036 points;
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is around 38,888 points.
BTC Price
Shanghai Composite Index
Dow Jones
April 20th - Halving is here, with unexpected results
On April 20, Bitcoin successfully completed its fourth halving. Before the halving, people had different opinions on the price of Bitcoin. Some people believed that the halving would promote a rapid rise in the price of Bitcoin in the short term; others believed that the halving would lead to a decrease in Bitcoin mining revenue and a sharp drop in miners’ income. We all know the story that followed: Bitcoin prices did not rise rapidly, and even fell below $60,000 at one point; miners’ income did not drop sharply, but instead, thanks to the growth of Bitcoin ecological projects such as Rune, their daily income once broke through a record high.
At that time,
BTC price is around $63,988;
The Shanghai Composite Index of A-shares is around 3066 points;
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is around 37,918 points.
BTC Price
Shanghai Composite Index
Dow Jones
May 12-BTC crashed first and then rose, and the regional political situation had an increasing impact
In early May, after experiencing a flash crash on the 1st and 2nd of the month, the price of Bitcoin gradually climbed steadily to around $60,000. However, at the same time, the increasing friction in the Middle East and the explosive political situation brought about by the US presidential election have cast a shadow on the development of traditional financial markets, including the cryptocurrency market and US stocks. However, compared with the "disappointment and even despair in the volatile market" in July and August, many crypto investment institutions and major industry figures were still optimistic about the market at that time. For more information, please see "3-minute quick view of Bitcoin's future market view: moving towards... in the volatility?"
At that time,
BTC price is around $60,776;
The Shanghai Composite Index of A-shares is around 3144 points;
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is around 39,422 points.
BTC Price
Shanghai Composite Index
Dow Jones
August 5th-BTC fell by $15,000 in 4 days, and the market was in panic
August 5th may be a day that many cryptocurrency industry practitioners still feel cold sweat when they think about it. At around 14:00 on that day, according to the OKX market, the price of Bitcoin once fell to 48934.8 US dollars, a 24-hour drop of 15%, and a price drop of 15,000 US dollars in 4 days, the largest drop of the year up to that time, and the cryptocurrency market fell into extreme panic. Looking back, the panic at that time was undoubtedly under the huge pressure of the global macroeconomic downturn. The US stock market lost nearly 3 trillion US dollars in market value overnight, equivalent to 2.5 cryptocurrency markets. This incident also once again verified that the cryptocurrency market is increasingly closely connected with the global economic market, and the performance of the two markets is closely related. As the old saying goes: no egg is intact under an overturned nest, and it is difficult for the cryptocurrency market to remain unscathed.
At that time,
BTC price is around $53,956;
The A-share Shanghai Composite Index is around 2860 points;
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is around 38,687 points.
BTC Price
Shanghai Composite Index
Dow Jones
September 20-The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, ushering in a global "flooding"
At 2 a.m. on September 19, the Federal Reserve announced the start of a rate cut cycle, lowering the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4.75%-5.00%, the first rate cut since March 2020. Subsequently, global markets rose in response, and China also introduced a series of favorable policies, including interest rate cuts, reserve requirement ratio cuts, and a package of policies to stimulate the investment market. The "national team" spent hundreds of billions of yuan to boost confidence in the capital market. The continued rise of A shares in recent days is the best illustration, and the "exponential rise K-line" of the Shanghai Composite Index now looks extremely steep, which is very consistent with the "To Da Moon" curve that the cryptocurrency industry has always advocated.
At that time,
BTC price is around $63,128;
The A-share Shanghai Composite Index is around 2739 points;
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was around 42,063 points.
BTC Price
Shanghai Composite Index
Dow Jones
Conclusion: The correlation between the cryptocurrency market and the traditional financial market is gradually increasing
Looking back at the BTC price trend, A-share index trend, and US Dow Jones trend since the beginning of this year, we can clearly draw the following conclusions:
After the Bitcoin spot ETF was approved, Bitcoin's safe-haven asset attributes were weakened to a certain extent compared to gold;
After the Bitcoin spot ETF is approved, the price trend of Bitcoin will be more affected by the Dow Jones Industrial Average rather than the other way around.
Bitcoin spot is more responsive to macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical factors due to its 24/7 trading flexibility, and its volatility is much greater than that of the U.S. and A-share markets.
The A-share market represented by the Shanghai Composite Index has long maintained a fluctuation range of around 2,800-3,100 points. In comparison, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen more significantly, from 37,000 points at the beginning of the year to around 42,600 points recently, an increase of around 15%; the price of Bitcoin has risen from US$42,000 at the beginning of the year to around US$64,000 now, an increase of around 52%, which can be called the "high-quality investment target of the year";
In the long run, although the current size of the cryptocurrency market (according to Coingecko data, the current total volume is 2.36 trillion US dollars) is far less than the trillions or even trillions of trading volumes of A-shares and US stocks, there may still be a possibility of "two-way bloodsucking" to a certain extent. Channels such as Hong Kong virtual currency ETF funds and US ETF funds have opened the entrance for capital inflows into traditional financial markets, but at the same time may also lead to further reflux of the already scarce liquidity of cryptocurrencies.
For the cryptocurrency industry, how to introduce more real-world assets and massive liquidity in traditional financial markets through ecosystem construction, narrative, application, market, consumption and other aspects is the next "industry-level problem" that practitioners cannot avoid. Mass Adoption may not be urgent, but attracting more capital flows is a top priority.
