September 30, 2024 Bitcoin and Ethereum gave up some of their gains in early Asian trading on Monday, with the move mainly due to market attention to an upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and U.S. labor market data to be released on Friday.
As for Bitcoin, according to relevant data, its price fell 2.09% in the past 24 hours to around $64,403. Last Friday, after the release of lower-than-expected personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data and China announced a series of strong stimulus measures to revive the economy, the world's largest cryptocurrency Bitcoin reached nearly $66,500, the highest level since the end of July. BTC Markets cryptocurrency analyst Rachael Lucas pointed out that Bitcoin appears to be overbought on the daily chart, and fell back after reaching a high last Friday. Its upward momentum has weakened since last week.
The trend of Ethereum is not optimistic either. Lucas said that Ethereum also had difficulty regaining momentum and lost momentum after falling below the 50-day simple moving average last week. Data showed that Ethereum fell 1.69% to $2,626 in the past 24 hours.
Currently, investors' eyes are focused on two key macroeconomic events this week. One is Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech to the National Association for Business Economics later today. Powell is expected to discuss the economic outlook and may provide insights into the Fed's monetary policy. Lucas believes that Powell's remarks, especially those on inflation and interest rates, tend to affect the market, and cryptocurrencies are no exception. Any tough tone could further fuel risk aversion and cause cryptocurrency prices to fall. However, Augustine Fan, director of insights at SOFA.org, said that Powell is unlikely to make any remarks that affect the market, and investors may expect him to make the same remarks as the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), especially since the last dovish Q&A, and recent inflation data has been in his favor.
Another key event is the U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday. The U.S. Department of Labor will release its monthly non-farm payrolls report on Friday, which will provide a brief overview of the U.S. job market and overall economic strength. Although the August data showed a weak U.S. labor market, Lucas of BTC Markets said the market expects the September data to improve. She believes that stronger-than-expected employment data may reinforce the Fed's current interest rate policy, which may benefit risk assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Conclusion:
In terms of cryptocurrency price action, the market is likely to maintain bullish momentum in the short term. As cryptocurrencies remain highly correlated with macro assets, especially the S&P 500, the friendly macro backdrop will continue to provide strong tailwinds for cryptocurrency prices in the fourth quarter. Additionally, with the Kamala camp paying lip service to cryptocurrency “support” in their campaign slogans, I remain bullish on price action in the short term, and targeted selling strategies may be popular as investors shift into “buy on dips” mode.
