September 30, 2024 In the cryptocurrency space, eyes are focused on the potential impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on Bitcoin.
CK Zheng, chief investment officer at ZX Squared Capital, pointed out that historically, the Bitcoin halving event in April usually leads to strong performance in the fourth quarter for Bitcoin. In this presidential election, neither the Republican nor the Democratic candidate has effectively addressed the growing debt and deficit problems in the United States, which could be a major boon for Bitcoin, especially after the election.
Looking back, every U.S. presidential election has been filled with uncertainty before the results were announced, and Bitcoin has also benefited from this uncertainty. Mr. Zheng firmly believes that this election will be no exception. Data from CoinGlass shows that since 2013, Bitcoin has historically risen by more than 50% in the fourth quarter six times, and the gains have been more significant in years when Bitcoin halving events occur. For example, in Q4 2020, Bitcoin rose 168% during the last halving, which also happened to be the year of the last U.S. presidential election. Currently, Bitcoin is widely expected to hit a new all-time high in the fourth quarter or later.
However, Samantha Yap, CEO and founder of Web3 PR firm YAP, sees things differently. She believes that Bitcoin’s rally and the price gains it brings are often not the most notable aspects. “What’s important is the surge in retail interest in the crypto industry. Media attention often follows retail attention, which leads to the entire media frenzy. The hope for the crypto and Web3 space during this time is that there are more available and accessible applications for newcomers to adopt.”
Conclusion:
If the U.S. economy can achieve a "soft landing," meaning the Fed "aggressively" cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, then this could also be positive for Bitcoin and risk assets. Central banks aim to achieve a soft landing by adjusting interest rates to both prevent overheating and high inflation while avoiding a recession. If the Fed succeeds in achieving this goal, Zheng expects the price of Bitcoin to be highly correlated with the Nasdaq.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $64,400, down 2% in the past 24 hours. As the U.S. presidential election approaches, the future trend of Bitcoin is full of uncertainty and opportunities. Whether Bitcoin can achieve new breakthroughs under the influence of the election or face new challenges, all this remains to be tested by time.
