#BTC☀ #BTC走势预测 In the short term, Bitcoin may pull back to 63,000-63,500, #BTC突破7万大关
Although Bitcoin prices have risen recently, there are several signs that it is not ready to break new all-time highs:
Low retail participation: Bitcoin prices reached a two-month high on September 28, but the Coinbase application ranking is still not high, indicating that retail investors are not very interested in the current market. Although Bitcoin has risen 21% in just three weeks, retail participation is still limited and market sentiment is relatively cautious.
China's USDT discount: In the Chinese market, the price of USDT has been lower than the US dollar exchange rate, showing the bearish sentiment of institutional investors in the crypto market. Usually, excessive demand leads to a premium, but the current discount reflects the outflow of market funds, which is contrary to the inflow trend of US spot ETFs, further proving that investors' demand is insufficient.
Wait-and-see attitude in the futures market: Although Bitcoin has risen to $66,000, the annualized premium of futures contracts is only 6%, indicating that institutional investors are still waiting and lacking confidence in the market outlook. This gives shorts more room to operate.
Although Bitcoin has rebounded recently, I don’t think Bitcoin is ready to hit a new all-time high due to low retail participation, capital outflows from the Chinese market, and cautious attitudes in the futures market.
