According to ChainCatcher, 10x Research pointed out in its market analysis that while most people's attention is focused on US employment data, the ISM manufacturing index has triggered a 10% market adjustment in the first week of each month in the past three months. However, employment data has played a key role in shaping market sentiment. Weak employment data has heightened concerns about a recession and increased expectations for a Fed rate cut, while stronger employment data has reassured investors that the US economy is more resilient than the ISM manufacturing index shows.

The ISM index may accurately reflect the state of the economy. However, the market has been interpreting the employment data through the lens of lower inflation, which is expected to give the Fed more room for aggressive action. In July, we highlighted that the ISM could signal the end of a Bitcoin cycle, and this month’s ISM data, released on October 1 at 10am EST, will be critical in gauging the outlook for the US economy.