BNB Chain’s native token, BNB, has gained 25.7% in the past three weeks, having reached a high of $614 on September 27. The fact that BNB closed above that level for the first time since June 2024 has raised expectations that the bullish momentum could continue. However, some investors are attributing the rise to the release of Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao in the US after four months in custody. BNB’s performance over the past three weeks mirrors the altcoin market in general; however, some technical analysts suggest that BNB, which has been avoiding staying below $500, could be entering a new uptrend, with some even targeting $1,000.
In April, CZ paid a $150 million fine and was sentenced to four months in prison after being accused of violating the Bank Secrecy Act in the US. In November 2023, Binance signed a $4.3 billion settlement with US regulators. CZ acknowledged Binance’s mistakes but insisted that no user funds were misappropriated.
CZ’s release could be affecting the BNB price. However, CZ’s legal issues are not thought to be directly related to BNB’s recent price action. BNB’s value is determined by Binance’s ecosystem, launchpad incentives, and trading fee discounts.
To assess whether BNB can return to its all-time high of $724 on June 6, it is necessary to examine the demand in the ecosystem. It is also important to compare performance with competing networks such as Ethereum and Solana to determine the sustainability of BNB’s price increase.
According to DefiLlama data, BNB Chain’s total locked value (TVL) has hovered around 8.2 million BNB over the past two months, while on Ethereum this figure increased by 8% to 19.2 million ETH and on Solana it increased by 20% to 35.7 million SOL. According to DappRadar, BNB Chain’s DApp volumes have decreased by 35% in the past 30 days to $26.7 billion.
Despite the decline in BNB Chain, this seems consistent with the overall cryptocurrency market. The number of active addresses interacting with DApps increased by 4% in the last 30 days to 2.47 million, while Ethereum saw a 23% decrease. However, there has been no major development in the BNB Chain ecosystem that would support BNB outperforming the altcoin market. There is no evidence that the release of CZ led to a price increase. As a result, there does not seem to be much reason for BNB to return to its all-time high in the near term.
