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The core inflation data announced in the US was announced as 2.7%, in line with market expectations. The previous data was at 2.6%, meaning there was a small increase. Core inflation is an important indicator in understanding the general trend of inflation, as it excludes volatile items such as energy and food.
Based on these results, the following evaluations can be made:
Market Reaction: Core inflation coming in line with expectations may not create a major shock on the markets. However, the upward trend may worry investors a bit. This situation may cause a cautious stance especially in stock markets. If pressures on interest rates increase, risky assets (e.g. technology stocks) may face more selling pressure.
Central Bank (Fed) Policies: An increase in core inflation may strengthen the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will continue its tight monetary policy. The Fed may be expected to take a more aggressive stance on interest rate hikes. However, this small increase may not create pressure for a sudden rate hike, and the Fed may continue to act cautiously.
Bond Market: Core inflation has risen in line with expectations, which may cause a slight increase in bond yields. Investors may demand higher interest rates out of concern that inflation may be a little more resilient. This may also create a limited increase in long-term interest rates.
Dollar Value: A slight increase in inflation data could cause the dollar to gain value. Especially if expectations for a Fed rate hike strengthen, the dollar could gain value against other currencies.
Crypto and Gold: If the possibility of a Fed rate hike grows stronger, it could put pressure on non-interest-bearing assets, especially gold and cryptocurrencies. However, the impact on these assets could vary depending on global risk appetite and the long-term outlook for inflationary concerns.
As a result, this core inflation data is in line with expectations, so it is unlikely to create a dramatic market movement. However, expectations of a rate hike may cause investors in the markets to take a cautious stance.
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