Transferred from Twitter - Xiaoming Finance
Reasons for the start of this round of bull market:
1. The Fed cuts interest rates. In the early morning of September 19th, Beijing time, the Fed started a radical interest rate cut, the first in four years, and a direct 50BP reduction, which exceeded many people's expectations. Bitcoin quickly soared and broke through the $62,000 mark.
2. Gold surged Gold also surged after the Fed cut interest rates. Gold has now exceeded $2,600, and has risen by $540 this year, making it the best year since 1979. Investors are risk-averse, and Bitcoin, as digital gold, has also risen along with gold.
3. Ethereum rebounded Ethereum has bottomed out and rebounded in recent days, driving the activity of the entire ecosystem, improving market sentiment, and all sectors are rising, which also plays an important role in maintaining the price of Bitcoin.
4. Harris publicly announced her support for the crypto industry for the first time. Harris said at a fundraiser in New York yesterday that if elected, she would encourage innovative technologies such as artificial intelligence and digital assets while protecting our consumers and investors. This is the first time Harris has commented on cryptocurrencies as a Democratic presidential candidate. People in the crypto industry have always praised Harris.
5. The world's top two economies collectively announced interest rate cuts. A major Eastern country announced a series of loose economic policies on September 24, including lowering the reserve requirement ratio, interest rates and existing mortgage rates, while introducing innovative policy tools to support the development of the stock market, with the aim of stimulating economic growth and boosting market confidence.
Specifically, a certain oriental giant announced that it would reduce the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 2 basis points, which is expected to release about 1 trillion yuan of liquidity. In addition, a 500 billion yuan fund plan was launched to support stock market investment, which made the Shanghai Composite Index rise by 4.15% on the same day, driving the optimism of the global market.
The Bitcoin market reacted positively to the news, but the gains were limited. After the rate cut, the market's sensitivity to macroeconomic policies has decreased a lot. In fact, there are still several important events this week that will have an impact on the market.
The first is the speeches of various Federal Reserve officials, which will take place throughout this week and can directly affect the market's expectations for subsequent interest rate cuts.
The second is the second quarter GDP final value data on Thursday night, as well as speeches by Powell and ECB President Lagarde. The last is the PCE inflation data on Friday. Although inflation is no longer the focus that can affect the extent of interest rate cuts, this is the first inflation data released after the interest rate cut. The market has not completely forgotten the risk of inflation rebound, so this also needs attention.
Generally speaking, the macro events this week still have a mild impact on the market, which is why I expect the currency market to maintain an upward trend after the interest rate cut. I still look forward to Bitcoin breaking through 6w5 this week. Bitcoin is following the trend of the previous bull market, hold on! $PEPE $FLOKI
