I wanted to ignore the data because, as expected, they were all good data. The theme of tonight’s speech was also about the seven gourd brothers defending their grandfather (U.S. economic expectations).
Let's look at this set of data.
Initial unemployment claims,
As of September 21, initial unemployment claims totaled 218,000, lower than the previous expectations and values. This data shows that the current employment data is good and the short-term outlook is optimistic.
Final GDP value for the second quarter,
The record was 3%, which was in line with expectations and the previous value. Needless to say, whether it is 3% or 2.9%, it is considered good data. The GDP in the second quarter was much higher than that in the first quarter, which is of course normal. The second quarter is often stronger than the first quarter.
The impact of this data will not be too great. The focus is on the GDP in the third quarter. The economy is allowed to weaken in the third quarter, but it cannot be too weak, so let's wait for the GDP in the third quarter. The preliminary data for the third quarter will have to wait until the end of October.
Consumer spending in the second quarter
Compared with GDP, consumer expenditure may be a more important data at present. The data recorded was 2.8%, which was slightly lower than expectations and the previous value, which is considered a small negative.
After the interest rate cut cycle begins, people’s expectations for the economy will depend on GDP on one hand, but more on consumer sentiment, while consumer spending can better reflect consumer purchasing power and confidence.
Purchasing power is equivalent to boosting domestic demand and stimulating the economy, and it also represents residents' current and future expectations for the economy.
PCE data for the second quarter,
The data recorded 2.8%, in line with expectations and the previous value. The PCE data may be the more important data in the early stage of the current interest rate cut cycle, and it is also the inflation data that the Federal Reserve pays the most attention to.
As the interest rate cut cycle begins, people are still most concerned about whether inflation will rebound. However, this set of data is for the second quarter, which is before the interest rate cut cycle. The data does not show large deviations and will have little impact on expectations for subsequent data.
The focus is still on the PCE data for August tomorrow.
Summarize:
Today's data, if taken individually, does not actually have much impact on the current market conditions, but overall, data preference, this data as a whole can make the market have a certain optimistic impact on future economic stability.
Of course, the most important thing is the speech of the Federal Reserve officials tonight, whether they will use this set of data to stabilize the market and have an optimistic outlook on the future economy.
