Data is stable! Discussions on interest rate cuts are starting! There will definitely be a cut, will it be before or after the election? #降息期待 #大选概念 #降息预测

Both the Federal Reserve and Wall Street believe that the recent 50 basis point rate cut is just the beginning, but there are differences on the speed of interest rate cuts. Federal Reserve policymakers advocate slow and steady rate cuts, believing that there is no need to rush in the absence of a recession, and the goal is to reach a neutral interest rate level. The median of the September "dot plot" predicts a 100 basis point rate cut to the target range of 3.25% to 3.5% this year and by the end of 2025. The long-term median forecast of the federal funds rate is close to 3%, which is considered a neutral interest rate. Atlanta Fed President Bostic does not care about the specific numerical differences in the neutral interest rate. FOMC members expect a soft landing, and some officials believe that the anti-inflation task has not been completed, such as Bowman's dissenting vote and concerns about the risk of inflation rebound. The next FOMC meeting will be held on November 6-7. Economists at Deutsche Bank pointed out that attention should be paid to the release date of the September employment data on October 4 and the October employment report on November 1. If the unemployment rate exceeds a certain level and non-farm employment growth is low, the interest rate may be cut by 50 basis points again in November. The market bets that the probability of another 50 basis point cut on November 7 is about 60%, and believes that the number of interest rate cuts in 2025 will be more than the Fed's basic assumption, but Wall Street has no voting rights on the FOMC. $BTC