When the market crashed on August 5, it was said that the six weeks and 42 days from August 5 to September 19 was a small cycle. After the rate cut, the period from September 19 to the election on November 5 was another six-week and 42-day small cycle. Whether from the macro perspective, fundamentals or technical aspects of the market, these 42 days are expected to have a small bull top. At first glance, it seems a bit metaphysical, but in fact, the underlying logic is not a big deal.

The copycats have now begun to turn around and recover. As mentioned before, the rate cut is the starting point of a new four-year easing cycle, and it should not be regarded as a negative in any case. It will take 1-2 years for the real liquidity to be abundant or even flooded. The rate cut now can be regarded as liquidity just crossing the 0 axis from the bottom up, and it is still far from the top of the sine curve. Assuming that Trump is elected, he will quickly enter a wave of recession and put the blame on his predecessor Biden. There will be a scene of 1 year of recession, 1 year of repair, and 2 years of prosperity. There is no need to worry that the Republican Party will not be re-elected in the next term.

If it is correct, there will be a major uptrend in October, and the first few days of November will still give people a thriving feeling, but after the election, political factors will temporarily withdraw, coupled with the traditional Black Friday and pre-Christmas selling season, December and before the Spring Festival may be a relatively sluggish market. #币安上线CATI #本周美国将公布PCE、GDP数据 #新币挖矿已上线HMSTR