PANews reported on September 26 that according to DL News, a new study by cryptocurrency market maker Keyrock showed that 88% of the tokens launched with airdrops this year have fallen in price, most of which plummeted within 15 days. Post-airdrop price changes mainly occurred within the first few days. Three months later, few tokens were able to achieve positive returns, and only a few tokens were able to reverse the trend.

It is generally believed that the more tokens a project airdrops, the worse it will perform on the open market. But this common perception is not supported by the data. "Contrary to popular belief, larger airdrops do not always lead to sell-offs. A token that allocated 70% of the airdrop achieved positive growth, indicating that fully diluted valuation (FDV) management is more important," said Keyrock. Keyrock pointed out two reasons why airdrops of high FDV tokens fail. First, projects with inflated FDVs often have difficulty maintaining momentum as the perceived upside becomes limited. Second, tokens with larger FDVs often lack the liquidity to support these valuations. "Without sufficient liquidity, prices become highly sensitive to selling pressure," said Keyrock.

Keyrock’s research also identified the most and least successful airdrops. Keyrock said Solana trading platform Drift was the top performer, with the key to its success being a modest launch value and a fair and thoughtful distribution. Currently, the DRIFT token is trading at nearly three times its launch value. Other Solana-based airdrops have also performed well. Keyrock said Solana is the top chain for airdrops in 2024, even after adjusting for market conditions, and highlighted the success of tokens such as WEN and JUP. On the other hand, ZkLend was the worst performing airdrop project, according to Keyrock’s analysis, with the price of its ZEND token having fallen 95% from its launch price. Keyrock attributed the poor performance of the ZkLend token to its high launch value and the project’s failure to build traction around its brand.