Cardano (ADA) has seen a solid rebound since the Chang hard fork went live on the blockchain earlier this month. ADA traded at $0.383 at press time, with its 7-day gains at 15%.

The bullish setup has stirred speculation about the start of a Cardano bull market. According to analyst Dan Gambardello, Cardano’s market capitalization could “realistically” rise to between $250 billion and $500 billion.

For Cardano to make such a rally, it would need to follow Ethereum’s past cycles. However, that remains unlikely for ADA as it does not have the same first-mover advantage as Ethereum.

The crypto market is saturated with a wide range of competitive blockchains. For Cardano to grow rapidly and possibly reach a $500 billion market cap, it would need to grow its market share significantly and outperform the other competing chains.

Nevertheless, Gambardello notes that this growth remains likely if Cardano receives high adoption and positive narratives across the market.

“While a $500 billion market cap is possible, especially if Cardano just lands the right deal, gets the right narrative, rides this crazy wave to $500 billion, what I would say is, and that is why I have the range here [$250 billion – $500 billion market cap], it’s a stretch,” the analyst stated.

Is Cardano Ready for a Rally to $3?

Cardano has seen a notable rise in buying momentum, as seen in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) metric, which stood at 62 at press time. This metric has been trending north over the past month, making higher highs.

Despite the recent rally, ADA is not overbought, meaning there is still room for more growth.

(Source: TradingView) 

A look at Cardano’s 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) shows that the short-term and the medium-term sentiments have flipped bullish.

The next target for ADA is the resistance at the 200-day EMA at $0.41. If the price breaks above this price, it could create momentum for a rally to a new record high.

A look at past cycles also suggests that ADA’s bull run could be close. After the 2020 Bitcoin halving, ADA took around five months before the start of a rally that saw it clinch an all-time high.

Strong bullish momentum could build around ADA if this cycle repeats, which could see the altcoin head for record highs.

High interest in Cardano is also seen in its open interest. According to Coinglass, ADA’s OI has increased to the highest level in three months and stood at $234M at press time per Coinglass.

(Source: Coinglass)

This suggests that traders are opening new positions on ADA, suggesting that the bullish sentiment remains strong.