It is very interesting to see a chart of Bitcoin's price and Binary CDD over the past four years.
The Binary CDD in recent months shows a typical barcode shape, which can help us make the following judgments:
1. Long-term Bitcoin holders have not yet made a positive bull market judgment, because Binary CDD does not show concentrated and frequent trading activities.
2. This means mixed things for us, because on the one hand it means that we still have a chance to get on board if the bull market is coming, on the other hand it may mean that the bear market is still dragging its long tail and refusing to leave, and the price of Bitcoin may still fluctuate sharply or even continue to weaken after the recent repair.
3. My personal view is more optimistic, because at least the market still tends to hold Bitcoin for a long time. At least from the perspective of Binary CDD, the sell-off has not occurred, and the current Bitcoin price is actually not low. This reduces the probability of a cliff-like drop in prices and provides solid support for the steady rise in prices. Combined with the overall environment of interest rate cuts, there is reason to be confident that prices will rise further.
(The measurement standard of Binary CDD is based on the precise measurement of the damage to the long-term supply and demand balance, which is the so-called "supply-adjusted CDD average". When judging whether the current situation is above or far below this average, the corresponding numerical mark will be given. If the actual situation exceeds the average, it means that the number 1 is returned; if it is below the average, the number 0 is returned.
If Binary CDD continues to maintain a level of 1, it implies that the holders' consumption behavior is deepening, and they may be frequently participating in various trading activities. On the contrary, if this Binary CDD is in a state of 0 for a long time, the holders may be more inclined to hold Bitcoin for a long time and are less willing to join those large-scale transactions or consumption actions. This is very valuable for understanding the behavioral patterns of market participants.)
