The RMB once entered the 6-digit range, and it seems inevitable that it will reach 6.

How do you view the future exchange rate trend?

- Long-term view of the economy

- Medium-term view on interest rates/power competition

- Look at the central bank's exchange rate manipulation/speculation in the near future

China's economy will still be in the transition period from fixed asset investment to consumption in the next 2-3 years, while the United States is in the recession period of the Internet dividend. The two are competing with each other. In comparison, China's economy is temporarily worse, and the deficit rate is slightly higher (broad deficit rate). China has a stronger demand for monetization of debt. From this point of view, the RMB is under pressure.

Looking at interest rates and the game between major powers in the medium term: From the perspective of interest rates, the interest rate gap between China and the United States has decreased, which is beneficial to the RMB exchange rate. According to previous analysis, if Trump comes to power, he should have a greater impulse to devaluate, and may mix a less obvious Plaza Accord with China.

Looking at speculation in the near term: this is mainly the return of the unsettled portion of China’s exports. From January to August alone, there were net exports of 600 billion, and the unsettled portion is estimated to be quite a lot.

Conclusion: If Trump comes to power, I would bet on the appreciation of the RMB.