Bitcoin [BTC] speculators are eyeing the $64,000 mark, a milestone last reached during the bull run in late August, making it a crucial turning point.
To avoid a repeat of previous declines, speculators will need to counter any bearish pressure. If successful, the next resistance level could emerge around $68,000.
Bitcoin: Bullish Momentum Depends on $64,000
The current cycle closely resembles the trend seen in early August, when BTC surged to $64,000 after falling below $55,000. However, that 18-day rally was marked by inconsistent downward pressure.
Conversely, while this cycle shows more green candles, the rate of increase is uneven, causing volatility among investors.
As a result, instead of the rate cut stimulating bullish sentiment, the continued volatility has kept BTC from retesting the $64,000 mark, currently trading at $63,543 – marking the fourth consecutive day below this benchmark.
Additionally, this benchmark has been tested five times since March, when BTC peaked at $73,000. Notably, it was only in July that speculators halted the decline, pushing BTC to $68,000.
Simply put, the $64,000 mark was a major turning point for Bitcoin.
While volume indicators show bullish sentiment, the real challenge is whether other investors will support the surge or whether sellers will once again prevent BTC from climbing higher.
Current prices may be out of reach
Over the past two days, BTC trading volume on CEX exchanges has dropped from $17 billion to $6 billion. This rapid decline could increase volatility, shaking investors' confidence in the possibility of a trend reversal.
The chart below may indicate a potential market top, which often coincides with reduced trading activity on CEX exchanges.
Conversely, when exchange volume spikes during sharp BTC declines, it is often an ideal opportunity to buy.
According to us, the decrease in trading activity could indicate two possibilities: either investors are booking profits from the September cycle, or they are waiting for a pullback to buy BTC at lower prices.
If this trend continues, it could certainly create a recovery in short positions in Bitcoin. As a result, the breakout opportunity could fail. However,
There may still be hope
As the most volatile month comes to an end, the “Uptober” could signal a bullish turn for the market, a glimmer of hope illustrated by the chart below.
On the day Bitcoin dropped slightly by 0.37%, the RPL ratio decreased, indicating losses. However, since then, the majority of transactions have been executed at a higher price than the initial price.
Adding to this analysis, large trading volumes have increased dramatically, with trades exceeding $100,000 being notable.
Apparently, speculators are pushing down the resistance that has kept Bitcoin below $64,000. Currently, the sharp decline in volume on CEX exchanges is reinforcing the dominance of short positions, acting as a barrier.
However, if the market stabilizes, as evidenced by sellers realizing profits, FOMO could drive longer-term commitment.
Finally, it is important to monitor volume on CEX exchanges along with speculative market activity. If left unchecked, their dominance could push BTC below $60,000.
