The bull market is about to recover, and the copycat season is about to start

1. Background

After the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate cut on September 19, 2024, market sentiment changed significantly. This change not only affects the stock market and futures market, but also affects the cryptocurrency market, changing the trading logic of the entire market.

2. Stock market

Optimism showed: On September 23 and 24, the stock market experienced a long-awaited rise. On the 24th, the Shanghai Securities Index rose by 4.15%, and the brewing and other sectors even rose by 7%.

3. Futures market

Signs of rebound: Due to the impact of the domestic real estate industry, black commodities such as building materials and steel have continued to decline in the past year, and agricultural products have also experienced significant declines. However, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, these markets began to see a continuous upward trend.

4. Cryptocurrency Market

Ethereum's performance strengthened: After the interest rate cut, the price of Ethereum increased significantly, driving the altcoins in its ecosystem to rise significantly on the 22nd and 23rd.

5. Changes in market logic

From expectations to reality: The market shifted from trading interest rate cut expectations to trading the possibility of continued rate cuts and the resulting bull cycle.

Spillover effect: Similar to the stock market, which rises sequentially from large-cap stocks to growth stocks to junk stocks, the cryptocurrency market may also experience a rotation of rising prices from Bitcoin to Ethereum to various altcoins.

6. Seasonal characteristics of altcoins

Big Rally: Altcoin season typically manifests itself as a big rally followed by a minor pullback.

Seize the opportunity: Investors should be bold in holding on to altcoin gains during periods of surge, but also be prepared to take profits when the time comes.

7. Market sentiment

Bull market expectations: Expectations for the bull market cycle can be seen from market sentiment. The start of a true bull market is usually the result of capital spilling out of Bitcoin into Ethereum and other altcoins.

8. Investment strategy

Staged Rise: When altcoins surge, it’s often the time for bubbles to form. At this time, you should try to hold as boldly as possible, but don't forget to exit at the right time.

9. Personal Observation

Meme coin case: Recently, I paid attention to a Meme coin related to Musk-Marvin (contract address: 7055). This currency has an active market, low market value, and strong conceptual attributes. Since November 1st is the birthday of Musk’s dog, Musk would celebrate his birthday on Twitter in previous years, which is worthy of attention.