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Cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket saw a surge in betting volume before the election, with trading volume exceeding $1 billion.
The topics of predictions related to the election are diverse, ranging from currency issuance to whether Biden will pardon SBF.
Polymarket plans to raise new funds for expansion and is considering issuing its own platform token.
Cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket sees surge in election bets
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, discussion topics on the cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket have also risen, becoming a popular market for political and cryptocurrency predictions.
Polymarket is a future event prediction platform that allows users to anonymously establish a betting pool for random events and determine the outcome in a binary "yes or no" manner. Such a simple design attracted a large number of bettors, coupled with the high level of discussion about the US election. According to data, the platform has successfully exceeded US$1 billion in transaction volume.
Although most of the "predicted events" on the platform are still more traditional predictions, such as who will win the election or related policy changes, there are also some investors who specialize in betting on more "special" topics.
Several special event prediction topics are summarized below.
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Currently, the Polymarket website has been suspended in Taiwan due to "gambling cases" to avoid further violations of the law.
Election related predictions on Polymarket
Will Trump issue cryptocurrency before the election?
Trump's personal branding can be described as diverse, from gold sneakers to "Trump steaks" and even a version of the "Let Americans Pray Again" Bible.
Now, Trump is trying to present himself to voters as a "supportive of cryptocurrency" and has hinted that he may launch a decentralized financial platform called "World Liberty Financial" (WLFI).
This project has been quite mysterious since it was exposed, and it has naturally become one of the hot topics of discussion among netizens. According to the prediction market on Polymarket, 80% of users believe that Trump will issue cryptocurrency before the election, making it one of the most watched bets on the platform.
However, not everyone in the cryptocurrency industry is optimistic.
Nic Carter, a well-known figure in the Bitcoin field, warned that if Trump launches a cryptocurrency project before the election, it may have a negative impact on his election. Such concerns are not unfounded. After all, Trump has just launched a series of products that have damaged his public image a while ago. If he continues to launch token projects, it is likely to have a negative impact on his personal image.
Will Biden support Trump?
The discussion on the platform about "Whether Biden will support Trump" is an incredible topic.
The incident began when Biden jokingly put on a red Trump hat at an event in Pennsylvania. This scene quickly became popular on the Internet. Immediately, a Polymarket user established a prediction market to see what netizens thought of "whether Biden will officially support Trump."
But of course, despite social media being flooded with "Thank you Biden for supporting Trump" jokes, few bettors believe that Biden will publicly express his support for Trump. This bet has extremely high odds, with a return of up to $5,280 for a $100 bet, making it one of the most unlikely predictions on Polymarket.
Will Biden pardon SBF?
Since April 1, a user on the platform has placed bets on whether Biden will provide presidential pardons, commutations or reprieves to SBFs convicted of the FTX incident.
Although SBF was ultimately convicted of seven charges including fraud and conspiracy, which ultimately led to the collapse of the FTX exchange, which was once the world's top three largest exchange, and was sentenced to 25 years in prison and fined US$11 billion.
But after all, he was once highly regarded in both the crypto industry and traditional financial circles, and he also had significant connections in American politics. In addition, during the 2020 U.S. presidential campaign, SBF was one of Biden's largest individual donors, with a total of donations 5.2 million US dollars, thus also arousing discussion among netizens.
However, as the presidential election is approaching, if Biden now issues this "pardon card" for SBF, it will simply confirm many conspiracy theories on the Internet and will become a scandal for the Democratic Party. Therefore, most netizens are I don’t think Biden would be stupid enough to do such a thing.
In addition, related topics include "Will the US government have Bitcoin reserves in 2024", "Whether Trump will win and nominate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to the Cabinet", and There are various interesting discussions such as "Whether Trump will mention MAGA coin before the election".
Crypto prediction market explodes, Polymarket raises new funds to expand
The popularity of Polymarket has also made it a new star in the encryption market this year.
Polymarket has so far raised US$70 million in two rounds of financing led by Peter Thiel. However, according to a report by technology media "The Information", Polymarket also plans to raise US$50 million in new funds in the near future and is considering issuing its own platform tokens.
If Polymarket goes ahead with its token issuance plan, investors will receive warrants giving them the right to purchase tokens. In addition, the report also pointed out that Polymarket uses these tokens "as a way for users to verify the results of real-world events."
Currently, Polymarket uses the Polygon blockchain to manage smart contracts and uses stablecoin USDC tokens for settlement. The platform’s trading volume reached a record high in August this year, reaching $472 million, and September is also expected to be the second-highest trading volume month in the platform’s history. To date, transaction volume has reached $397 million.
References: coindesk, cointelegraph
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