On September 24, spot gold broke through $2,640/ounce, setting a new record high. Fed Chairman Goolsbee said that if the situation continues (weak employment, etc.), there will be a lot of interest rate cuts in the next 12 months. The current interest rate level is hundreds of basis points higher than the neutral interest rate. It is reasonable to start cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. To achieve a soft landing, we must keep up with the situation.

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Patrick McHenry, director of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, Senator Cynthia Lummis, and more than 40 other lawmakers wrote to Gary Gensler, director of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), on September 23, saying that SAB-121 subverts the custody rules for cryptocurrencies, weakens consumer protection, and stifles financial innovation, calling on the SEC to repeal the crypto bill SAB-121. SAB-121 is a proposed rule that requires SEC reporting entities that custody cryptocurrencies to record these holdings as liabilities in their balance sheets. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit reviewed the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) decision to dismiss Coinbase's petition for cryptocurrency regulatory rulemaking, questioning its reasons as too limited. In July 2022, Coinbase asked the SEC to propose and adopt regulatory rules for "securities offered and traded through digital native methods," including clarifying which crypto assets are securities. The SEC rejected the petition at the end of 2023, prompting Coinbase to apply to the Court of Appeals to force the SEC to respond. AI startup Anthropic proposed a $40 billion valuation in new financing. On July 17, Silicon Valley venture capital Menlo Ventures participated in Anthropic's financing of more than $750 million. According to CoinShares data, digital asset investment products saw net inflows for the second consecutive week, totaling $321 million. The Fed's stance was more dovish than expected, resulting in a 9% increase in asset management (AUM) and a total transaction volume of $9.5 billion for investment products.

According to Coinglass data, if BTC breaks through $65,000, the cumulative short order liquidation intensity of mainstream CEX will reach 1.597 billion; if BTC falls below $61,000, the cumulative long order liquidation intensity of mainstream CEX will reach 1.136 billion. "Top trader" Eugene Ng Ah Sio said that 95% of existing protocol tokens are worthless, and most altcoins have gradually approached reasonable levels after their prices have fallen by 80 to 90% since their launch. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani said that any signal of loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and the potential weakening of the US dollar are good for BTC. BTC has risen 45% this year, surpassing the 27% increase in gold; Harris and Trump may bring more regulatory clarity; the momentum of BTC ETF is still an important factor, and the capital flow of BTCETF remains a net inflow, with a cumulative inflow of $17 billion. The approval of new brokerages (Morgan Stanley recently went online) will continue, and as consultants have some time to consult clients, capital inflows are expected to accelerate again. Citibank's "2024 Global Family Office Survey Report" shows that the number of family offices that are optimistic about cryptocurrencies has doubled from 8% last year to 17% this year. Direct investment is still their favorite investment method. Large family offices have shown greater interest in tokenized real-world assets (RWA). 11% of large family offices hold cryptocurrency exposure, while this proportion is only 3% for small family offices. 37% of family offices in the Asia-Pacific region invest or are interested in investing in digital assets. Latin American family offices have the lowest interest, and 83% of family offices do not prioritize the allocation of digital assets.

Trader T data, on September 23, the US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of $4.53 million, of which Fidelity FBTC had a net inflow of $24.9 million. The US spot ETH ETF had a net outflow of $79.21 million. On September 24, spot gold broke through $2,640 per ounce, setting a new record high. Bloomberg: The trend of cryptocurrency assets and US stocks has almost reached the highest level in the same period in history (0.67), indicating that the macroeconomic variables that drive the stock market are also affecting the cryptocurrency market. The focus this week will be the comments of Fed members and the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE). Fed Goolsbee said that if the situation continues, there will be a lot of interest rate cuts in the next 12 months. The current interest rate level is hundreds of basis points higher than the neutral interest rate. It is reasonable to start cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. To achieve a soft landing, it is necessary to keep up with the situation. Goldman Sachs said that in the past four decades, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates five times without a recession, and the S&P 500 index rose an average of 17% in the 12 months after the first rate cut. It believes that the US stock market is in a bull market and "the future trend is still higher." Wall Street strategist Ed Yardeni said that the Fed's latest monetary policy decision increased the probability of a "complete melt-up" in the US stock market from 20% to 30%, just like during the Internet bubble, the probability of a bull market is 80%, and the probability of a crash is 20%. Rekt Capital compared the periods after the halving of BTC in 2020 and 2024, and found that they were highly similar. After the two halvings, BTC entered a re-accumulation phase lasting about 161 days, laying the foundation for a potential rise.

Matrixport said that as the price of BTC rebounds, the issuance rate of stablecoins has also accelerated, indicating that US dollars are steadily flowing into the cryptocurrency market. Compared with the weak inflows in early summer, the current US dollar inflows have increased significantly, and the trend is positive news for the encryption market. . This Thursday, the United States announced the final value of the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter (expected value: 2.9%, previous value: 3%), and the number of initial jobless claims (expected value: 225,000, previous value: 219,000); August will be announced on Friday The core PCE price index annual rate (previous value 2.6%, expected value 2.7%). Federal Reserve Goolsbee said: The unemployment rate is on the rise, but the level is still low. The Fed's focus has turned to weak employment data. Analysts believe that this week's data is not enough to influence the Fed's next interest rate cuts, and still hold a bullish view. The correlation between the pie and the S&P 500 index has almost reached the highest level in history at 0.67 for the same period, and is recovering simultaneously. The currency market needs to keep up with this round of Fed interest rate cuts and the bull market in the U.S. stock market. As long as the trend is maintained, a bullish rebound is expected. #AI概念币普涨 #本周美国将公布PCE、GDP数据 #加密市场反弹